Export Growth Of Polyester And Raw Materials Will Still Be Strong.

In the last month of 2016, the pure polyester yarn T32S once surged from 11800 yuan / ton to 13000 yuan / ton, although it slipped to 12800 yuan / ton at the end of the month, but the increase of 1000 yuan / ton also made the market a big surprise. The fast rising upsurge stimulated a large number of traders and downstream goods receiving. However, along with the constant price of the new year's new high, the market's cautious mood was constantly growing, and the high price caused the industry's contradictions to be stocked before the Spring Festival.

Polyester as a crude oil derivative, although the cost surface conduction process is longer, but the overall trend of crude oil changes, for polyester, there is little difference.

For the forecast of crude oil in 2017, Chuang Chuang crude analysts believe it will present a pre high and low state, but the price rise in the first half of this year will be due to the growth of shale oil.

The growth rate is basically unchanged, and the operation area of light oil is 40-60 dollars / barrel as normal.

It is initially estimated that the average price of 2017 young oil will be around 50 dollars / barrel.

China's polyester production capacity occupies the first place in the world, the depreciation of the RMB and the development of Southeast Asian countries have increased the demand for our polyester products. According to statistics, the export volume of polyester filament and staple fiber increased by 20.23% and 6.33% respectively in the 1-11 months of 2016.

The export of pure polyester yarn increased by 22.80% over the same period last year. Analysts believe that in 2017, the depreciation of the RMB will still be 6%, and the export volume of polyester products will continue to increase.

In addition, futures on MEG products will be around.

In 2017, the capacity expansion was limited, and polyester had some support from the cost side. The price of polyester and polyester yarn in 2017 continued to improve.

But according to the current market information, polyester and polyester yarn in 2017, there are still more support points to drive up prices, the overall average price may even exceed 2014.

In the whole PX - PTA polyester industry chain, the source is crude oil, the upstream is PX, the middle reaches are PTA, the downstream is polyester, and the terminal is chemical fiber textile.

Due to the different supply and demand situation, the right to speak in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain is also different.

How will the polyester market go at the end of the year?

"Often when the whole industry chain price rises, upstream raw materials.

The biggest increase has eroded part of the profits of the PTA industry, and the price of PTA has increased the price of polyester products.

Wang Guangqian said, but because of less than PTA, polyester production profits were also compressed, and even last polyester production loss, shrinking demand situation, and then reverse the PTA market demand and product prices.

After the PTA production profit is compressed again, it also needs to stop and repair and compress PX. The reversal of PX's strong supply and demand situation will drag down the price of PX, thus easing the cost pressure of downstream PTA and polyester.

In the second half of this year, especially after October, the demand for terminal demand has been released, and the supply and demand pattern of polyester links has been the first to be improved. The profit has risen sharply, which has further promoted the market demand of PTA and PX, and the corresponding price and profit have also shown a slight expansion.

This situation is different from the usual cost push, and the sustainability is stronger than before.

As the Spring Festival draws near, the load of downstream weaving enterprises will drop to freezing point, and demand will further decline.

However, judging from the survey, different enterprises have different load adjustment situations. Some enterprises have parking overhaul plans at the end of the year, and some enterprises say that workers will run at high load as long as there are workers.

"During the Spring Festival, there will be room for a reduction in the polyester production rate, but in view of the current production and operation conditions, the situation of large-scale parking inspection in the past is difficult to reproduce."

Wang Guangqian believes that from the perspective of demand alone, polyester prices will fall or consolidate at the end of the year.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.