Throwing And Storing Domestic Cotton Has Always Been A Weight To Suppress Prices.

In 2017 and 2016, the price of cotton will shift upward, but the dumping and storage of domestic cotton has always been the weight to suppress prices, and the slightly loose foreign market will also play a role of inhibition. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to rise next year, but the scope is limited. Judging from the cotton price index, 13300-18000 yuan / ton will become the main range of cotton price operation in 2017. At the end of the year, cotton prices rose like rainbow in the cotton market in 2016, a route of 9990 yuan / ton rose to 16975 yuan / ton. The reasons for the rise of cotton this year can be summed up in two aspects: first, the tight supply of the market, and the two is the promotion of funds.

Under the background of insufficient market cotton production, National cotton reserves The delay in the storage and sale directly detonated the market, and the shortage of the spot market promoted the straight rise of cotton. After that, the slow speed of the national cotton inspection, the limited number of goods, the difficulty in storehouse and the hoarding of goods by traders increased the driving force of cotton prices. In addition, in a loose monetary environment, capital continues to flow into the commodity market, which is another reason for the rise in cotton prices.

The cotton price rising stage in September this year is more money driven. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the property market regulation policies have been introduced, the property market has begun to cool down, and the corresponding commodity market is booming. In addition, cotton in the devaluation period of the RMB as a daily necessities has no doubt its natural advantages, although the speed is slowing down, the upward trend of cotton prices is relatively clear. For the cotton market in 2017, the two conditions that drive up cotton prices still exist.

According to the statistics of the world granary, 2015/16 cotton consumption in China was 7 million 640 thousand tons, 4 million 900 thousand tons of output and 980 thousand tons of imports, and the gap between supply and demand reached 1 million 760 thousand tons. This year, the total volume of dumping and storage of national cotton reserves was 2 million 659 thousand and 200 tons, which effectively compensated for the gap between supply and demand this year. For 2016/2017, cotton consumption is estimated at 7 million 560 thousand tons, output is 4 million 610 thousand tons, import volume is 900 thousand tons, and the gap between supply and demand is 2 million 50 thousand tons, but the new year will continue to arrange for dumping and storage. Cotton supply 。

For foreign countries Cotton market According to the USDA projections for December, the total output of cotton in the 2016/17 is 22 million 695 thousand tons, the consumption volume is 24 million 363 thousand tons, and the final inventory is 19 million 409 thousand tons. Among them, the total output of cotton is 18 million 123 thousand tons, the consumption volume is 16 million 582 thousand tons, and the final inventory is 8 million 991 thousand tons, except China. Global inventory consumption has declined for two consecutive years since it hit a new high in 14/15, but in addition to China, the global inventory consumption ratio is basically stable and is expected to increase slightly in 16/17.

As China has a quota system for cotton imports, that is, 1% of the quota within the tariff is 894 thousand tons, and the excess part of the implementation of the sliding tax and basically no quotas, coupled with the reserve policy under the state reserve stock which is still in the high position, so the direct linkage between the domestic market and the international cotton market is weakened, and the global supply of cotton is slightly loose except for China in the new year. But in the global market, India and the United States are very variable. The United States pays more attention to crop value comparison, while India's cotton production depends on whether the monsoon rainfall is adequate. But in general, global cotton is still in the out of stock cycle. Although consumption may not increase substantially in the past two years, cotton prices will continue to move upward.

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