2017 A Share Return Is Expected To Be Higher Than The US Stock Market.

From the current situation, there has been a bubble in the US stock market, and the P / E ratio between the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones index has surpassed the record highs. In the past few years, the Dow's price earnings ratio is between 15 and 18 times, and has reached nearly 25 times. The strength of US stocks is not due to strong fundamentals, but because the central banks of the world are flooding water. We find that some high quality stocks are actually good hedge assets, because the United States like Dow Jones index is the 30 main industrial company, and their profit growth is good, so they can take the risk avoiding function.

Of course US stock At present, the rally is so fierce that it really makes many A share investors very envious. Every night, the US stocks see a record high. During the day, the A shares fall. But next year, I think that the space for US stocks to go up to a higher level is not large, and at most 10%, it reaches 20000 points, while A shares rose from 30% to 4000 at 30%. Therefore, from the absolute increase, the growth of A shares will be stronger than that of US stocks next year.

In such a slow bull market, short term band is difficult to do, while adjusting the strategy of buying high quality stocks and holding strategy is more effective. We see that this year from 2600 points, the market has risen by six hundred or seven hundred points, but many people are losing money, it is precisely because of this repeated operation, repeatedly cut leek. Another reason is that the investment direction is not right. This year is the blue chip market, but many people bought small stocks. The result was bought at 2600 o'clock, and it was set at 3000.

　　 The gem is facing adjustment pressure, and there are opportunities for individual stocks.

The gem has not yet been out of tune for the time being, because after the stock market crash, everyone is already "one day bitten by a snake, and ten years shy of the well string". In the bull market, we often say a word "wind comes, pigs can fly". The next sentence is "the wind is gone, the pigs are falling down". Only the birds are still flying. We found that those small stocks in the bull market were completely unsupported during the stock market crash, and they were still expensive after half a fall. For example, it was 140 times as much as it used to be. P / E ratio Half of that is 70 times, but it is still very expensive, and investors will be worried whether they will fall another half. So this year, the market is rebounding, but some small cap stocks are constantly adjusting and constantly innovating. This is the reason.

By next year, things will be difficult to change. Stock echange crash It's so big, but it will slowly compress its valuation. Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong has been officially opened. Shanghai and Hong Kong have been opened for more than a year. This is equivalent to the three deep markets of Shanghai and Hong Kong, which are fully connected, and the valuation will be close. The valuation of Hongkong's small cap is more than 10 times, and many small cap stocks of A shares are 60 times, and the gap is still too large. Therefore, there is such a gap that small cap stocks are difficult to perform.

　　 Neutral monetary policy has little effect on the stock market.

Many people worry that monetary policy will tighten next year. I think the tightening of money has a greater impact on the bond market. Because the interest rate may have had an inflection point in the past two years, from a steady decline before, to a smooth or upward trend. So the bond market has plummeted. Although the central bank has put a lot of money to save the market, the adjustment of the bond market has not ended. For the stock market, monetary policy remains neutral, in fact, the impact on the stock market is not that big, because now the overall asset allocation is still scarce, and now the real economy does not have much investment opportunities, funds will not enter into the real economy in large quantities, excess liquidity will be part of the stock market, so A shares, especially blue chips, will have a good rebound in the future.

The deleveraging of the property and bond markets is only just beginning, and the stock market has become the best choice for these funds. This means that when the property market has an inflection point, the bond market will be leveraged, and then the capital should flow into the stock market. The turning point of the bond market may be because the yuan is expected to be basically flat. The RMB exchange rate, I think, is still trying to stabilize the central bank. After all, the renminbi has just joined the IMF SDR. If the RMB has just become an international reserve currency, a large number of depreciation will affect the international reputation of the RMB, so the central bank is also using foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate.

In addition, Trump may force the renminbi to appreciate after he takes office. He believes that because the RMB exchange rate is undervalued, the trade deficit between China and the United States is too large, so he wants the renminbi to appreciate. This shows that Trump may not really know the actual situation. At present, the Central Bank of China has a headache. It is how to prevent the RMB from devaluing. When Trump takes office, he may take measures to make the renminbi appreciate. So I think the RMB exchange rate will remain moderate next year.

　　 2017 A share return is expected to be higher than the US stock market.

For the comment on A shares and US stocks, I think that the absolute return rate of the A and US stocks may be higher than that of the US stocks. Because the bull market of US stocks has lasted for 5 years, this year's index has also reached a record high, exceeding many people's expectations. At the beginning of the year, a lot of people feared that the US stock would probably pull back to 14000, and the result rose to 18000. Before the announcement of the election results, many people were worried that the US stock would fall sharply. As a result, the US stock hit a new high after Trump was elected. It once rose to more than 19700 points, and it is still hitting a new high recently.

Since the US stocks have been in the bull for a long time, the US economic recovery is not so strong, so the rate hike is not as firm as expected, which is up to 2.5. According to the Fed, there will be 3 increases in interest rates next year, but I do not think that is very likely. As at the end of December last year, when the Fed raised its interest rate for the first time, there would be 4 interest rate hikes in 2016. At that time, I analyzed that considering that the US economic recovery was not very strong, there was at most 1 increase in interest rates in 2016, which in fact proved that my inference was correct, and the Fed did not begin its first interest rate increase until December.

Because the Fed's interest rate increase is very tangled. Because the economic side is not good, it dare not raise interest rates quickly. Once the interest rate hike is too much, it will affect the recovery of the US economy. In view of this, the Fed expects that the 3 rate hike next year will be hard to cash in. It is estimated that next year's situation will be similar to that of this year. The Fed will still frighten investors around the world by shouting, so that global capital will flow to the United States, but in fact it will not raise interest rates many times, and I think it will be the 1 most.

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