Analysis Of The Secret Of Trump's Moving The Shoe Industry Back To The United States

Trump needs to footwear industry Is there any theoretical basis for moving back to the US?

According to the world clothing and shoe net, President trump during the election campaign has repeatedly expressed the need to move the footwear industry back to the United States. The daughter's shoes were not produced in the United States, which caused an uproar in the media.

That's a lot. We just want to discuss today. Is there any theoretical basis for trump to move the shoe industry back to the United States? Or is he talking nonsense for the sake of votes?

Let's take a look at the global industrial transfer path of shoes and manufacturing industries.

Four major shifts in global footwear industry

Path analysis diagram

There have been four large-scale industrial transfer events worldwide.

The first time: in 50s, the United States will footwear The transfer of traditional industries to Japan and Germany.

The second time: from 60 to 70s, Japan and Germany transferred Asia's "four dragons" and some Latin American countries to labor intensive industries such as footwear.

The third time: in early 80s, developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan and Asian "four dragons" were transferred to developing countries. Since 90s, China has gradually become the third largest recipient and beneficiary of the world's industrial transfer.

The fourth time: of course, what has happened and is happening to Southeast Asia, Africa and other places.

The four transfer routes are:

From developed countries to developing countries,

From the leading technology countries to the relatively backward technology countries.

The general trend is:

From the high labor cost area to the low labor cost area.

During this period, the profit of manufacturing sector is very low.

Smile curve theory

We spent decades.

In 1992, Stan Shih, founder of Taiwan Acer group, put forward the theory of "Smiling Curve".

The curve of smile shows that the value of the curve is high on both sides of the curve, and the profit space is large. However, the processing, assembling and manufacturing of the middle arc bottom of the curve are not high in technology, low in added value and meager in profit.

In the past 20 years, the smile curve theory has been recognized by the industry along with the development of Acer. It has even become the development philosophy of many enterprises in Taiwan and Mainland China. Smile curve has become Made in China The guiding curve of China's wisdom.

A successful case is HUAWEI.

In the human resource allocation of HUAWEI, technical research and development personnel account for 46%, marketing and service personnel accounted for 33%, management and other personnel accounted for 9%, and the remaining 12% are production personnel.

In the past 20 years, HUAWEI has maintained such a proportion, and the human resource allocation has shown a "Smiling Curve" of "high R & D and high market".

　 Tit for tat's "Musashi curve"

Present progressive

In 2004, Nakamura Maihiro, director of the SONY Village Research Institute in Japan, put forward the "Musashi curve" which is completely contrary to the smile curve. He thought that the real most profitable source of profit was in "manufacturing".

Nakamura Maihiro found that when manufacturing links were more prominent in the value contribution of enterprises and monopolistic advantages, the process of assembly and manufacturing had higher profits, while the profits of parts, materials and sales and services were lower.

For such manufacturing enterprises, the effective way to maintain high profits is to improve enterprise management level and reorganize production management mode.

The two theories have their realistic results to support their arguments. Who is right or who is wrong?

Personally, I believe that no one is right or wrong. In the early days of reform and opening up, it was a time to make money if we could produce. Because our enterprise management level is not high, science and technology is not very developed, resulting in "manufacturing" the profits are far from being reflected. So the smile curve is right.

At present, with the progress of science and technology, the advent of automated production and intelligent production will greatly reduce the cost and the efficiency will increase exponentially. Adidas returned to Germany, Reebok returned to the United States, and trump needed to move the shoe industry back to the United States, and finally found a strong theoretical basis.

The difference between the two theories is that the stage of manufacturing development is different, so there are different conclusions.

summary

No conclusion, no sentiment.

With the gradual disappearance of population dividends and the rising cost of labor in developing countries such as China, the substitution of robots is the development direction of the global manufacturing industry in the future.

When the cost of using robots is reduced and robots are more economical to replace manpower, the trajectory may be reversed, and the manufacturing sector will be partially returned to the United States.

However, because many manufacturing industry chains are in China, it is difficult to transfer them all. One of the main directions of future transformation and upgrading of these huge capacity is automation.

With the rapid growth of domestic automation market demand. This may be the opportunity for China's footwear industry.

More interesting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net.