RMB'S Short-Term Depreciation Will Do More Harm Than Good.

In the recent international market, the US dollar has shifted to a high level of consolidation, creating an opportunity for the RMB exchange rate to stabilize and stabilize, and it is not difficult to see the efforts of the monetary authorities to maintain stability.

Analysts said that the domestic economic operation continued to be stable and good, and the US dollar exchange rate reflected the full range of interest rate expectations, and the high volatility increased. Considering the increasing intensity of exchange rate stability, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar would continue to be in a period of rest until the end of the year.

Over the next year, the demand for individual purchase of foreign exchange and the demand for seasonal purchase of foreign exchange have increased, or the downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate has been increased again.

However, with the support of the abundant reserve policy, the RMB pairs

It will not be out of control. In the main non US currencies, the renminbi will remain relatively strong.

When it comes to exchange rates, Lian Ping said that the short-term devaluation of the renminbi will do more harm than good.

He said that some of the export enterprises had obviously improved their operating conditions due to the depreciation of the renminbi. "But there are not many such enterprises."

Moreover, the drawback of the sharp depreciation is obvious, which will push capital outflow, and domestic capital itself has the demand for foreign investment, which will make the expectation of capital outflow more intense, and ultimately return to the exchange rate will have a negative impact.

There are two factors that cause the fluctuation of exchange rate, the first is the fundamentals of economic growth, banking system and monetary policy.

"For example, the management of capital outflow has already started."

Lian Ping said that the exchange rate and capital flow can take away the wealth accumulated by the state in the short term. Therefore, in the face of the impact of capital flows, the government should be encouraged to take relevant measures to combat it.

"It is absolutely necessary to seriously attack speculative capital, which is good for the stability of exchange rate."

Second, from the perspective of capital inflow, Lian Ping believes that although the liquidity of RMB is loose and the interest rate is not high, there is still a sharp spread between the US dollar and the US dollar, which can improve corporate liabilities and import some overseas capital into the capital market.

Lian Ping predicted that this year's economic growth will keep rising, the exchange rate pressure is very large, and it is not suitable to reduce the interest rate and reduce the quasi operation. There may be interest rate increase in the future. "Of course, at present, the conditions may not be very mature, but with the further growth of CPI, the upward pressure of PPI has increased significantly. It has reached 3.3 now. By the beginning of next year, I reckon that breaking through 5% is entirely possible."

In the field of real estate, although the regulation has been carried out, the possibility of rising housing prices will continue. If the rising housing prices mean that the bubble in the real estate sector is still developing, the conditions for future interest rates will be mature enough.

Since the end of November, the RMB against the US dollar has been on the market since the end of the year, after falling to nearly 6.9 yuan.

There are signs of stabilization.

By the end of this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to usher in a rest period.

First of all, the current market expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in December have been consistent. Recently, the appreciation of the US dollar has fully reflected the possible changes in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December and even the possible increase in interest rates in the future. Moreover, the impact of the referendum failure in Italy has been reflected. Unless the US Federal Reserve substantially increases its economic forecast and policy foresight, the US dollar may face the problem of insufficient driving power and may even have a callback after the rise of the "boots".

Secondly, market information shows that the big banks are continuing to provide us dollar liquidity and consolidating the RMB exchange rate stabilization trend. In the face of integer entry, the willingness of the relevant parties to maintain the stability of the exchange rate may still be strong. At the same time, the external control department may further tighten capital control to cope with capital outflow in the future, and accordingly, the devaluation pressure of the RMB may also be controlled.

Moreover, the recent positive changes and highlights in the domestic economic operation have increased.

In November, the official manufacturing PMI rose further to 51.7. Historically, the fourth quarter is often the peak season for export in China. The data released by the Customs General Administration on 8 showed that in November, the US dollar denominated export grew by 0.1% over the same period last year, and the import grew by 6.7%, which was better than the market expected median level. The trade surplus in that month dropped to slightly more than 44 billion 600 million US dollars, but maintained at a relatively high level in history.

Economic stability and favorable balance of trade remain a strong basic support for the RMB exchange rate.

Finally, with the opening of the bond market and the accession of the RMB to SDR, the positive role of foreign investors' holdings of RMB bonds will also gradually appear.

According to the latest issuance of the November bond trusteeship by the central government's debt and supernatant, despite the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the adjustment of the bond market in November, offshore institutions still increased their holdings of RMB bonds by 15 billion 600 million yuan in the month, 350 million yuan more than in October. Since March of this year, foreign institutions have increased their holdings of RMB bonds to more than 210 billion yuan.

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