The Central Bank Of China Raised The Cost Of Capital By Locking Short And Lengthened Operations.

From China's perspective, after half a year's stimulus policy, the growth has been successfully stabilized. In the first three quarters, the GDP growth rate was 6.7%, and the annual GDP growth rate of 6.5% should be stable.

But at the cost of soaring prices, soaring housing prices and a marked rebound in inflation, risk prevention has become a top priority, and the Politburo meeting also regards "asset bubbles suppression and financial risk prevention" as the primary goal in the future, both of which are related to soaring housing prices.

Since the 16 year August, with the short-term recovery of US inflation, the core PCE has reached 1.7%, and the target of 2% is only one step away. The rate of interest increase at the end of the United States has gradually risen to over 90%, which means that in December, the great probability of the US Federal Reserve will start the second increase in the current round of interest rates.

At the same time, the 10 year treasury bond interest rate rose by 90BP to 2.4% in the United States, and interest rates on long-term treasury bonds in Europe and Japan were also rising.

Monetary policy in the world's major developed economies has tightened.

The United States raised interest rates for the central bank to save credit and deal with upward pressure on inflation, while Europe and Japan pulled out of QE in order to save the struggling banking industry with negative interest rates.

With the recent strength of the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate has dropped to a new low, and the pressure on capital outflow has increased.

The Central Bank of China has operated by locking short and lengthened to raise the cost of capital.

We estimate that the average cost of the central bank has increased from 2% to over 2.7%.

The cost of capital in the market has been rising slowly, and China's monetary policy has been tightening up for a short time.

The center of gravity grew steadily in the first half of the year.

The 16 year GDP growth target set at the beginning of the year is 6.5%-7%, but the GDP growth rate in the 1 quarter has dropped to 6.7%. Therefore, the core goal of the first half of the year is steady growth. On the one hand, the central bank in March cleared the money and the money was obviously loose. On the other hand, the 1 quarter's credit blowout to 4 trillion and 600 billion.

The price of short and stable commodities is rising.

The volume of financing has pushed the industrial economy to stabilize since March, and supply contraction has led to a marked rise in prices from farm products to industrial products this year, and the economy has shown short-term stagflation.

According to Merrill Lynch Investment clock, commodities tend to perform well during stagflation.

Focus on risk prevention.

After the recovery of money and credit, China successfully stabilized its growth in the 3 quarter, but at the cost of soaring prices, soaring housing prices and a marked rebound in inflation, risk prevention has become a top priority.

Three, the real estate bubble is not sustainable.

Real estate sales are close to the top.

From the perspective of population structure, the number of labor force has reached the top in 2011, and the number of new housing starts has reached the top in 13 years. The blowout of new housing sales in 16 years has nothing to do with population demand.

Mortgage leverage is not sustainable.

16 years of hot real estate sales is an out and out financial phenomenon, which stems from the fact that residents are trying hard to buy houses.

The leverage ratio of housing exceeds 50%, which has exceeded the peak of 07 years in the United States.

And new mortgage loans or more than GDP new year, mortgage loans or reached the limit.

Liquidity inflection point is now in place.

From historical data, it is not the interest rate that is highly related to housing prices, but the broad currency M2.

The scissors gap between China's M1 and M2 is huge, which means that enterprises are hoarding money and liquidity traps are appearing. M2 growth tends to fall.

The current M2 growth rate is only 11%, which is not enough to support the national housing price rise.

Last year, the loosening of financial regulation led to the depletion of liquidity in the north, and the most stringent regulation and control policy in October was the real estate industry.

Us: weak economy and limited interest rate increase.

The US's economic recovery in the 3 quarter mainly depended on exports and inventories, but it was not sustainable. The contribution of consumption was only 1.5%. The monthly employment increased nearly 5 years ago. The policy effect of the new president remains to be seen. We judge that the Federal Reserve does not have the ability to continue to raise interest rates.

Stable exchange rate is the only way to reform.

We firmly believe that starting from the 4 quarter of 16, when the economic stage has stabilized, the real estate industry has already completed its historical mission and will fade out of the historical stage in the face of the enormous devaluation pressure of the exchange rate. The reform of state-owned enterprises and the pformation of the economy will become the main theme of the 17 year.

China: supply and demand reverses inflation.

Due to the continued decline in real estate sales, the traditional industrial economy will face downward pressure again, and inflation will only be a short-term phenomenon.

The growth rate of real estate sales in November has increased sharply, and the increase in prices has pushed the output of industrial products to a new high. Inventory of real estate and coal industries has started to pick up, and commodity prices are looking for the top. Inflation is expected to fall again in early 17, and there will be another loose opportunity in the 2 quarter.

From physical to financial assets.

As prices fall again, asset allocation should also turn from physical assets to financial assets.

On the one hand, after the adjustment in the 4 quarter, we continue to be optimistic about the 17 years of bond market, while we look at the high dividend assets of the class bonds. On the other hand, we are optimistic about all the efficient assets, including reform, service and innovation.

The bond market remained good for 17 years.

First of all, we continue to look favorably on the 17 year bond market.

"Zero interest rate is a long-term trend" pointed out that with the arrival of the aging of population, the real estate cycle is peaking and the return on assets is decreasing. Eventually, it will go to zero interest rate.

In the 17 year, with the decline of real estate sales again, we believe that the bond market after the callback will have investment value, and the interest rate of the 10 year treasury bond is expected to be further low.

Class bonds are favored by high dividends.

With the decline of interest rates, the value of high dividend assets of class bonds will also rise significantly.

For A share companies, because of the emergence of liquidity trap, enterprises are reluctant to invest and start hoarding cash, which means that the future dividend rate has great room for improvement.