The Change Of Gem: The Pattern Of Large And Small Funds Will Not Change At The Moment.

This week, the A shares regained strength and broke through the new rebound. The blue chip sector formed an internal turn, and the overall operation was in good shape.

The agency believes that with the continuous help of buying, the market above the 3200 point is expected to continue, the pattern of large and small funds will not change.

This week

In the concussion, the center of gravity continued to move upward, especially the Shanghai Stock Index weekly K line has formed a seven Lian Yang combination.

Correspondingly, the gem of emerging industries refers to the trend of downturn, and the mainstream funds return to traditional industries, especially the main board market, which is concentrated in cyclical industries. This means that the main market of this cycle is the cyclical stock market.

The market is expected to continue.

Reporter: can the above 3200 points continue? What are the influencing factors?

Fu Hai asked: from the operation of Shanghai stock index this week, the Shanghai Stock Index station continued to run on the 5 day line after the 5 day line of Shanghai Stock Index station on Monday, and its strong characteristics are quite obvious.

With the continuous help of buying disk, the market above the 3200 point is expected to continue.

First, capital flows into the stock market.

Although interbank lending rates are rising and short-term funds are tight, the stock index is still rising, indicating that new funds are constantly being added.

After severe regulation and control of the property market, a large number of profit seeking funds are looking for a way out. At present, under the situation of tighter foreign exchange control, the possibility of large capital outflows is relatively small, and domestic investment channels are relatively single, and the stock market has become a better choice.

Second, the external market is constantly improving, creating a better atmosphere for A shares.

In particular, the three major stock indexes in the US have been constantly refreshing. The Dow is the first time to stand on 19000 points, bringing positive stimulation to the global stock market.

Three, the performance of A share listed companies has improved, giving strong support to the index.

In addition to the emerging industries, the traditional industry has been improving after several years of capacity and pformation and upgrading, and these traditional industries are mostly heavyweights, and the upward trend of stock prices is bound to push up the stock index.

Sun Jianbo: the market has regained strength this week. The Shanghai Composite Index has started a concussion above 3200 points.

For future market trends, we need to observe from a longer dimension.

In 2016, only A shares fell unilaterally in January.

After February, there was a narrow pattern of fluctuation and upward trend.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1000 points from 3600 in the end of 2015, one month after the Spring Festival.

The high point of spring rebound reached 3097.17 points, which was achieved in April 13th.

This high point has been broken again after mid August, and the market is heading for a new round of concussion after the mid-term adjustment. In the middle of November, the Shanghai composite index exceeded 3200 points, indicating that the market entered a new boom period.

Gu Yongtao: since October, the A share market has gradually recovered.

From the overall environment, the main driving force of the market comes from the gradual recognition of investors' anticipation of economic recovery and the rise of cyclical stocks brought by the rise in commodity prices.

In 2016, the supply side reform was greatly promoted, and the upstream supply contraction was obvious, but the demand did not change synchronously.

At the same time, under the anticipation of economic recovery, market demand is expected to gradually increase, resulting in a change in the supply and demand structure of the market.

In this case, the price of upstream products continues to rise. Although regulators are trying to promote the release of advanced capacity, they still can not meet the market demand.

Driven by price and market supply and demand structure, cyclical industry has strong driving force.

At present, the driving force for sustained economic growth is still in progress, but the trend is weakening, and the future data will not be able to meet the expected market growth.

The upward trend in commodity prices is expected to continue in the short term, but the momentum is weakening.

In the future market or entering the shock finishing period, the market style is still blue chip, and the market will shift from cyclical products to large financial and large consumption industries with strong profitability and reasonable valuation.

Layout cycle shares

Remember: at present

Sun Jianbo: at present, the big pattern is still in the stage of shock, and the market is still dominated by structural market.

In the short term, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will soon be opened, and the A share valuation system will further integrate with the mature international market.

From the perspective of A shares, the main benefited species are white horse growth, consumer stocks, pharmaceutical stocks and brokerage stocks. The beneficial stocks of Hong Kong stocks are mainly growth stocks, brokerages, and undervalued stocks with high dividend value.

The recent economic improvement is obvious, but the pressure on subsequent demand will increase, and the policy will remain relatively relaxed.

From the domestic situation, the construction peak of the highway and high-speed railway has passed. In the future, the field of large-scale construction will be general aviation airport and regional aviation airport.

This will be a very long field in the industry chain. Not only the airport construction itself is very broad, but also the equipment demand and consumption demand that the future operation will bring, and it will also be the driving force for the long-term economic growth.

Therefore, general aviation and airport construction are preferred.

Gu Yongtao: in the future, blue chips are expected to remain strong.

Due to changes in supply and demand structure, there is a driving force for prices of cyclical products in the short term. Although production capacity is released, it is difficult to make up for the market demand gap, and the cyclical industry still has room for expression.

At present, monetary policy has gradually shifted from easing before, while repo rates show signs of contraction in monetary policy.

Against this background, the economy is driven more by fiscal policy, and it is suggested to focus on market revenue and policy driven infrastructure.

In addition, the current market base is still weak. In the allocation, we should pay attention to the margin of safety, choose a high profitability and reasonable valuation industry, and suggest that we should configure public utilities and large financial sectors.

Fu Hai asked: at present, investors should actively layout A shares. With the increasing profit effect of A shares, new funds are expected to continue to join.

In terms of target selection, gem should be avoided, especially those GEM stocks that have surged and have not yet been adjusted.

Focus on the main board stocks, especially those with improved performance and not being fired.

Specifically, in the traditional industries such as iron and steel, coal, nonferrous metals, paper making, chemical industry and other industries, many enterprises have clearly improved after their capacity, pformation and upgrading, but the stock price has not yet been reflected.

It should be noted that don't think a buy will rise.

Judging from historical experience, the short-term trend of the market can not be judged, but as long as the direction is right, the rise is sooner or later.

"The trend is like a horse. If you chase behind a horse, you will never catch up. You can only ride as fast as a horse when riding on a horse."

Similarly, do not always chase those stocks that have risen, so you can never catch up. If you chase them blindly, the result is high buying and low selling, which is the main reason why most investors can not make profits in the stock market.

The right way is to find the right direction, select the target, layout first, and then wait for the rise. After the stock price goes up, profits will be picked up.

Reporter: this Tuesday, the growth enterprise market has been pulled up, and the growth stocks have been active to drive the market popularity.

Fu Haiwen: this Tuesday, although the growth enterprise market has pulled up, but compared with the Shanghai stock index and the index line, we can see that the Shanghai stock index is generally upward trend, but the index is downward trend, and the signs of separation are obvious.

This tells us that funds are paying attention to the main board market dominated by traditional industries and fleeing the growth enterprise market which represents new industries.

This deviation is somewhat similar to that of the index and stock index three years ago.

At that time, the index continued to weaken and the stock index continued to weaken. The reason was that a large number of traditional industries had to go to capacity, and the new industries were highly supported by policy support.

After three years of adjustment, the capacity of the traditional industries is coming to an end, and the emerging industries are facing bottlenecks, especially the gem index. After three years of bull market, it has greatly overdrawn the future market, and is now in a period of constant return of value.

Therefore, the downside of the motherboard and the growth enterprise market will continue.

Gu Yongtao: Recently, the market is gradually getting warmer. Blue chip and growth stocks are all showing, but the overall market environment is still biased towards blue chips.

Because the recent market rebound, mainly benefited from improved economic data and upstream cyclical product price push.

There are some changes in the recent market, and the hot market shifts from cyclical stocks to big consumption and big financial sectors, and growth stocks also have staged performance.

Although the economic rebound is expected to be strengthened, the foundation is still unstable. Under this background, the market still tends to find industries and sectors with higher safety margins, and balance the profitability and valuation factors.

The absolute valuation of gem is still relatively high, and there is uncertainty in the growth of growth from the growth of epitaxy.

Sun Jianbo: in the past, every round of the stock market rose, although the difference was very large at the start time, as long as the rally or rise time was long enough, the increase in small and medium sized stocks was even greater.

This is because: first, the direction of the rise and fall of stock assets is the same direction in the large cycle observation, although there may be occasional differences in short-term performance; second, the elasticity of small stocks tends to be larger, and when the market falls, the decline will be greater and the increase will also increase.

The current growth stocks are relatively weak, mainly due to the poor performance of the leading board, lettway (300104).

To exclude this factor, we believe that the performance of the gem will only be followed by time and will eventually catch up.

Generally speaking, large cap stocks are the basis of market sentiment. As long as large cap stocks keep the index stable, the market will actively seek for thematic opportunities and growth opportunities.

As long as the market is continuous, the gem will be able to catch up and catch up.