Investors Are Fearless Of A Sharp Fall And Are Confident That Gold Will Rebound.

Although gold prices tumbled nearly 6% last week, gold traders and analysts are still looking ahead to next week's gold price trend for second consecutive weeks, according to a new survey released last Friday by Bloomberg. Among the 13 gold traders and analysts surveyed, 10 were bullish (77%), 1 were empty (15%) and 1 were flat (8%). Meanwhile, the weekly gold survey released by Kitco last Friday also showed that although gold this week fell to 5 month lows due to Trump's election in the US election, more than half of the professionals and retail investors agreed that gold would rebound next week.

Capital Economics, an economist at Simona Gambarini, said in a research report that the current weakness in gold prices will prove to be short-lived. Fiscal stimulus coupled with low unemployment may bring inflation Rather than economic growth. The unpredictability of Trump's policy remains a risk. Adrian Day, Asset Management Co's chairman and CEO Adrian Day, thinks gold will be retraced. He believes that "the unexpected reaction of the market to Trump's election will continue next week, and we will see that gold will weaken further and the dollar will be stronger."

International spot gold on Monday (November 14th) the Asian market began to further expand the decline, and refresh 1213.91 U.S. dollars / ounce of more than 5 months low, the overall decline of more than 1%, because the dollar index rose to 9 month high early. Last Friday, investors speculate that the increase in US infrastructure spending may stimulate inflation, raising the US bond yields, while the commodity market was generally sell-off. The gold price fell 3% on that day and hit a 5 month low. A number of Federal Reserve officials, including Jannet Yellen, will attend their economic activities this week, and the market will pay close attention to the content of their speeches. On the other hand, the US retail data, supported by "terrorist data", will also be released on Tuesday.

Although the price of gold rose nearly 5% on Wednesday (November 9th) after the election results showed that Trump was accidentally elected president of the United States, but spot gold last week recorded the worst weekly performance in June 2013. Gold prices plunged 77.80 US dollars in November 11th, down 5.96%, to $1226.80 / ounce, the first time since four weeks. According to the zero hedge financial blog, more than 85 thousand gold futures contracts worth 10 billion US dollars were sold off during the US stock market opening period last Friday, and gold prices fell from 1260 to below 1230. This is the worst day for gold in 7 days since November.

The US dollar index climbed further more than 0.6% on Monday, a 99.66 month high of 9 and a rise of 0.8% in dollar / yen. At the same time, the spot gold in Asia's early market expanded by more than 1% on Monday, reaching a minimum of 1213.84 US dollars / ounce; spot silver also fell more than 1%, refreshing over a month's low of 17.05 dollars / ounce, and the price of precious metals plummeted nearly 7% on Friday. Analysts said the collapse of gold and silver last Friday was also the return of assets after Trump's election. Assessment The result. Driven by inflation expectations from President elect Trump, Trump said it would increase public spending and set obstacles to cheap imports. The US dollar and US bond yields have risen sharply, which is extremely bad for gold.

On the other hand, the increase in inflation expectations is the increase in interest rate expectations, and the trend of federal funds rate futures now implies that the Federal Reserve has more than 85% chance of raising interest rates in December. Fisher, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said at a meeting of the Central Bank of Chile last Friday (November 11th) that the Federal Reserve is close to achieving its dual objective of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices and strengthening the reasons for raising interest rates in Stanley Fischer. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at San Po bank, said: "this week, as Trump won the election, assets were re evaluated. The real yield rises and the US dollar goes up. gold It hurts. "

But Ronald Leung, a Hongkong gold trader, said: "a strong gold buying at a low level will not cause gold to fall too much. Whenever there is a price drop, there is always a bottom hunter. " This week, the financial market will continue to see major events. In terms of economic data, the United States will announce heavy targets such as retail sales and CPI, and the Federal Reserve will have a large number of officials this week. Especially the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, is concerned about the idea of raising interest rates. In addition, foreign media speculate that Yellen may submit his resignation after Trump takes office. Yellen's latest statement will attract attention.

Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price futures group, expects gold to end next week. There will be a rebound in the second half of the week, but gold will still be suppressed by strong dollar and rising Treasury yields. "That does not mean that we will not see the market change next week. In some ways, such as industrial metal strength, it may give us some support expectations, because this means more inflation."

However, Colin Cieszynski, chief analyst at the CMC market, said that although the price has been oversold, the market is likely to fall even lower. "Although gold is hitting the oversold area, the reversal of bear this week is something we can not fail to see because of the rebound. Next week, gold can continue to be affected by the withdrawal of capital from the defensive area to the stock market." Adrian Day, Asset Management Co's chairman and CEO Adrian Day, thinks gold will be retraced. He believes that "the unexpected reaction of the market to Trump's election will continue next week, and we will see that gold will weaken further and the dollar will be stronger."