Seed Cotton Prices Are Rising Steadily And Textile Enterprises Are Gradually Warming Up.

From the domestic cotton market supply and demand balance sheet, 2016/17 cotton annual supply is not tight, and even at a certain stage will be more relaxed. 2016/17 cotton will be thrown away in March next year. With the lessons learned this year, the possibility of a policy change is very small, and it will be well prepared in the early stage, and there will be no bottlenecks like this year's insufficient public inspection and warehousing.

So at least early next year, there will be no shortage of expectations in the market. successor prince It can completely satisfy the market. At the end of September this year, we had a total of 1 million 220 thousand tons of industrial and commercial inventories, plus 4 million 500 thousand tons of domestic output, totaling 5 million 720 thousand tons. In terms of imports, according to last year's rhythm, 2016/17 cotton was expected to import 450 thousand tons in the first 5 months of the year. By the end of next February, the total supply will be 6 million 170 thousand tons.

National Day Seed cotton The price range rose by about 10%, but after the national day, it dropped by 0.7 yuan / kg, and basically returned to the end of September; and from late October, seed cotton stopped steadily, and rebounded slightly in early November. From the whole industry chain analysis, due to the obvious overcapacity of domestic ginning plants and the relative lack of seed cotton resources, the bargaining power of ginning mills is poor.

For many ginning plants, under the condition of low processing profit, it is necessary to increase the processing capacity to reduce the cost. It is understood that the current cotton seed purchase process in Xinjiang is about 60%. Judging from the current situation, the price of late seeded cotton is hard to fall, and there is even the possibility of rising, which still supports the market.

Textile enterprises gradually warming up the pace of replenishment, the formation of the recent cotton market is obviously good. Textile enterprises in September to add a lot of throwing cotton reserves, is to cope with the current market. According to statistics from relevant departments, as of the end of September, the textile industry's industrial inventory was 700 thousand tons, and traders' commercial stocks were 500 thousand tons. According to the consumption of 650 thousand tons per month, the current circulation of cotton resources in the market is only 550 thousand tons, less than a month's consumption. Textile enterprises Replenishment is urgently needed.

In addition, after the national day, yarn prices rose to a certain extent, textile enterprises increased profits, and increased the acceptance of cotton at the high price. Recently, some traders said that textile enterprises purchase orders gradually emerged, and cotton prices began to pick up. It is estimated that in 7-10 days, the textile industry will get a marked increase.

Demand side, with 650 thousand tons / month, as at the end of February next year, the total demand is 3 million 250 thousand tons. According to the above data estimates, as of the end of February next year, the market will reach 2 million 920 thousand tons of cotton stocks. The launch of the reserve fund in March next year will take 6 months to the end of August. Due to adequate preparation, it will basically meet the scale of 3 million 600 thousand tons of cotton reserves.

Therefore, from the analysis of supply and demand situation, China's cotton market will not be tight enough for 2016/17 cotton year, and it will be difficult to sustain cotton prices at current prices for a long time. To sum up, in the short term, cotton prices are hard to come down in the domestic cotton market due to the stabilization of seed cotton purchase price and the support of textile enterprises, but from a longer period of analysis, the domestic market is relatively loose, and the downward pressure on prices in the latter market is greater.