Cotton Market Can Not Get Rid Of The Pattern Of "Top And Bottom".

Recently, the cotton textile mills and traders gradually increased in the recent enquiry and inspection of the warehouse. The focus was on the "double 29, double 30" machine picking cotton in the northern Xinjiang, and the "double 29, double 28" cotton picking in southern Xinjiang, which had low interest in low grade and low quality lint, but the paction did not suddenly enlarge, and was still in a slow recovery.

At present, no matter Zheng or Xinjiang cotton spot can not get rid of the "top and bottom" pattern, CF1701 contract is difficult to maintain even if it is tested 15750. Short term 15000-15450, this narrow box breakthrough is more difficult. The reasons are summarized as follows:

First, the main contract of 15300 yuan / ton is bound to attract a large number of "hedging" plates.

According to the survey, the purchase price of seed cotton fell sharply in the middle and late 10 months, 0.60-0.70 yuan / kg, and the cotton seed sale price rebounded to 2.55-2.60 yuan / kg from the low point of 2.40 yuan / kg.

The total cost has been reduced to 15800-16000 yuan / ton (15500 yuan per ton).

The futures price of 15300 yuan / ton corresponds to the gross price of the gross domestic product, which is about 15600-15700 yuan / ton. If the premium, such as grade, length and quality of the rolling mill is added, the ginning factory can be completely "unlocked" or even slightly profitable. Therefore, for the purpose of avoiding risks and completing the sales ahead of schedule, a CF1701 break of 15300 yuan / ton will surely lead to a large number of solid market entry.

In addition, the current cotton traders purchase is mainly to generate futures warehouse receipts and guarantee delivery, and there is little room for futures to go up.

Two, the cost of lint and the upcoming replenishment of textile mills support futures are not deep enough.

Take the "3128 stage" hand picking cotton as an example, at present, the price of the southern Xinjiang regulatory library is 15400-15600 yuan / ton (gross weight), and some of the mainland textile mills accept 15800 yuan / ton to the factory price.

While the cost of the inner Bank of the ginning factory is 15800 yuan / ton, the psychological expectation and acceptance ability of the buyers and sellers gradually close up (the gap between the two in the middle and October is over 1000 yuan / ton).

In addition, from the perspective of raw material inventory of textile enterprises, there will be a wave of cotton purchasing in mid November. In the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin, the cotton seed purchase and processing period is obviously delayed, resulting in the "no force" of lint and the arrival of 2016/17 cotton in the first half of December.

Three, the price of foreign yarn is down and the order of textile enterprises is no improvement is cotton price.

Obstacles.

It is reported that over the past month or so, the price of cotton in India and Pakistan has dropped sharply, the stock of cotton mill has increased and the depreciation of RMB has been affected. The price of FOB and CNF of India and Pakistan has dropped by 0.15-0.18 dollars / kg, and the price of RMB clearing has fallen 800-1000 yuan / ton. In early November, the difference between domestic C21S, C32S yarn and imported India yarn reached 500-700 yuan / ton, and domestic yarn was facing double pressure of price and sales volume.

With the end of the "golden nine silver ten" peak season for weaving, fabrics, clothing and foreign trade enterprises, the export and domestic sales orders showed the characteristics of "off-season and lighter". Downstream enterprises were cautious about large orders, long delivery orders, no profit orders, and tight liquidity.

The purchase of raw materials for garment factories is "buying and selling without using stock."

On November 3-4, Zhengzhou, the wind vane of commodity cotton electronic matching and other wind vane continued to rebound strongly, and the high point approached 15450 yuan / ton (the end of October high point). After a big break, it went straight to the position of 15750 yuan / ton, and the spot quotation of some foreign merchants and traders in Xinjiang also increased slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton.

In addition, the rebound in futures, picking up flowers and acquisitions in the southern part of the country entered the "sprint" stage of the mid and late stages and the gradual improvement of the tight situation of the purchasing funds of some ginning plants.

Akesu, Kashi and other parts of 40 cotton parts, 13% of the cotton seed purchase price rose to 7.30-7.45 yuan / kg, Jiashi, Mengaiti, Yuepuhu and other places 7.0-7.10 yuan / kg purchase price disappeared, 7.25-7.30 yuan / kg is very common.