The "Policy Market" Feature Of The A Share Market Will Gradually Weaken The "Horse Market" Coming.

The long term bull market in the stock market is not only the result of the pformation of the economic growth mode, but also the symbol of the pformation and upgrading of the financial industry.

Once said, the "mad bull market" in 2015 is the "fetal movement" of the new born fetus, which indicates that a new stock market will soon be in labor.

From "mad cow" to "horse market", the sharp rise and fall of Chinese characteristics will not fade away, but it is fading away.

The typical trend of the slow bull market is the increase in volatility, which shows a narrow fluctuation, and the "two draws and one retreat" and "advance one retreat one" alternation.

After the "eleven" long vacation, the A share market continued to rise for two weeks under the 3000 index of Shanghai stock market. It fell again after the close of the previous high point.

Since the end of 2015 to the end of January this year, the Shanghai stock index has exceeded 3130 points in August 16th and October 24th only two times, but the bottom has risen and the amplitude has narrowed. It is expected that one or two callbacks will be able to make a breakthrough, thereby confirming a longer-term bull market.

Historically, a similar "Ma market" has occurred in 1995~2001 years. After the A share market plunged, it rose sharply in 1995~1999 years, and finally ran a bull market for two years (1999~2001 years).

Mature stock market is a barometer of the economic cycle, and China's stock market is a weathervane of institutional change.

With the accumulation and institutional reform of stock market investors, the "policy market" characteristics of A share market will gradually weaken, and the correlation with economic growth will also gradually strengthen.

To this end, our big city should follow two paths: first, look at the economic trend; two, look at institutional change.

The economic foundation is the optimization of industrial structure and the pformation of growth pattern.

In the era of money industrialization, national credit will be pformed into national credit assets through paper money and bonds, thus supporting the internationalization of money and raising the total amount of negotiable currencies and bonds.

Looking to the countries surrounding China, almost no country has the highest denomination currency of 100 yuan (the highest denomination of Malaysia's old currency is 1000 yuan, the highest denomination of the new currency is 100 yuan), and even the non market economy of North Korea, the highest value of the currency is 5000 yuan.

The change in currency denomination is also a milestone in institutional change.

At that time, the highest denomination currency in China was 10 yuan, when a Western journalist asked Premier Zhou Enlai: "how much money does the people bank have?" Premier Zhou wisely replied, "18 yuan, 8 cents and 8 cents!" then explained that China issued 10 principal and subsidiary currencies with a total face value of 18 yuan, 8 cents and 8 points.

Since the reform and opening up, China has issued 100 yuan denomination of RMB since April 1987. It has been more than 30 years.

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At all times and in all over the world, monetary growth and currency denomination will directly or indirectly cause inflation worries, thereby stimulating people's desire for investment.

The process of urbanization will also form a "high price" mansion at the completion stage, which will cause the fear of the collapse of the property market.

Because of the strong liquidity, strong selectivity and resistance of securitisation

The potential advantages will gradually surpass that of real estate investment and rise to the main pillar of family assets portfolio, thus forming the trend of securing family wealth.

In the portfolio of high net worth families, the trend of wealth securitization will make the stock market a pillar of the "big capital management industry", and the real estate market will also open the era of asset securitization.

The multi-level financial paction market will be based on the securitization of stock market + property market, and create an industry chain of securities investment and finance. The financial industry is the third largest industry in the third industry. Since the third industry accounted for more than second industries in 2013, the proportion of the third industries in the whole country has reached 52.8%. This means that the Chinese economy will also be like the developed countries, the virtual economy will surpass the real economy, the knowledge economy will surpass the labor economy, and the asset premium will surpass the labor reward, so that the financial industry can be upgraded from the vassal of the real economy to the creation of the real economy.