In November, The RMB Exchange Rate Was High Or Volatile.

For the upcoming October financial data, the market expects that foreign exchange reserves will continue to decrease in October, and the RMB exchange rate will soon be under pressure.

Against this background, the downward pressure on RMB and the pressure of cross-border capital outflow have further promoted each other.

Since October, the US dollar / RMB NDF has been rising continuously.

This shows that the RMB devaluation is still strong, leading to a continued downturn in demand for foreign exchange settlement and a strong demand for foreign exchange, thus creating pressure on foreign exchange.

Lian Ping predicts that in October, foreign exchange will still fall in a certain scale, with a slight decrease or narrowing compared with September.

In the past few months, the long-term deficit has continued to expand, which means that the deficit will be maintained in the short term.

Therefore, short-term domestic and foreign funds will continue to decline, but medium and long-term foreign exchange funds are expected to remain stable.

At the same time, the market is more concerned about the impact of the US general election next week on the foreign exchange market.

The global market is highly concerned about this week's open market meeting of the Federal Reserve, hoping to get more hints from the Fed's monetary policy.

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cross this week's meeting until December.

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Federal funds interest rate futures also indicate that the Fed's rate hike in December is up to 70%, while the probability of raising interest rates this week is less than 5%.

Yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7562, and the renminbi increased by 172 basis points from the previous trading day.

The market expects that the forex account data to be released in October will continue to decrease, and the RMB exchange rate will soon be under pressure. The expected increase of the Fed's interest rate at the end of the year will continue to exert pressure on the RMB exchange rate and cross-border capital flows. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain volatile in November.

Statistics show that the cumulative depreciation rate of the central parity of RMB against the US dollar in October was 1.29%, the most in the past 5 months.

In October 28th, the middle price was reported at 6.7858, the lowest since September 9, 2010.

Over the same period, the spot rate of RMB against the US dollar on the shore dropped by 1.51%, the lowest in October 28th, to 6.7856 in the past 6 years.

"The biggest pressure facing the renminbi in the future comes from

Go strong. "

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said that the interest rate hike of the central bank's interest rate conference in mid December will increase. Speculation on interest rate hikes may push the US dollar index stronger and strengthen pressure on the RMB exchange rate in November.

It will remain at a high level.

Standard Chartered Bank's latest survey of small and medium enterprises in October showed that due to the weakening export demand, more SMEs surveyed expected the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar in the near future.

Specifically, 45.5% of the 521 companies surveyed expected that the yuan would depreciate against the US dollar, compared with 35.6% in September. This is also the second highest proportion this year, after 47.4% in January.

Considering seasonal factors, the increase of residents' purchase of foreign exchange at the end of the year will also have an impact on the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market.

Industry experts said, "the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate" is still a process to be fully accepted by the market.

Therefore, in the short term, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will continue to be under pressure.

Standard Chartered Bank economist Shen Lan said that by the end of 2016, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar would be the end of 6.752017 or 6.78.

"The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the medium and long term."

Lian Ping said that in the medium to long term, the driving effect of the Fed's rate hike on the US dollar index gradually weakened, and the US dollar index showed a downward trend at the top.

China's economic fundamentals are still good, and the possibility of a sharp decline in economic growth is very small.

After the RMB was formally incorporated into the basket of SDR currencies, the demand for international investors to allocate RMB bonds assets is expected to continue to increase.