PTA Prices Continue Upward Upward Need Caution

In the absence of favorable supply and demand situation, PTA has changed its declining trend and ushered in a long drawn out rally. Its position is the 570 thousand highest hand since its listing.

However, no matter from the raw material end or the supply and demand side, the PTA lacks the driving force to continue upward.

Both the cost side and the supply and demand side are difficult to drive PTA prices up, short-term funds to rise or to provide investors with opportunities to enter the market.

The prospect of crude oil limited production is blurred.

In September 28th, the OPEC member countries unexpectedly reached a framework agreement on frozen production. This was boosted by oil prices rising by nearly 10%. Frozen production is expected to be strong for oil market support.

But for now, the prospect of crude oil production is still blurred. Ultimately, it is more difficult for the oil producing countries to reach an agreement on frozen production or production reduction.

First of all, Iran, Libya and Nigeria have limited production immunity, and the potential of their production growth is huge. It is unrealistic to exclude these three countries from limiting production. Secondly, there is a big gap between the independent data sources of OPEC third party and the official output data of OPEC. OPEC needs to determine the real production data of countries before it determines the reduction reference volume, which is very difficult.

In addition, Iraq has recently demanded immunity from the freeze production agreement, and Russia's attitude towards frozen production is also uncertain.

Therefore, the prospect of OPEC limited production is complicated. If the frozen production agreement is finally falsified, oil prices can not escape the fate of falling.

The supply and demand side is good.

October Yisheng, Hengli, MITSUBISHI centralized maintenance, resulting in

The monthly average load is low.

The load was maintained at a high level for the year. PTA was expected to stock 100 thousand to 150 thousand tons in that month. Under the promotion of good supply and demand, PTA's actual processing fee rebounded to 500 yuan / ton (October PX Asia ACP settlement price 780 US dollars / ton), compared with the average PTA processing fee rose by nearly 50 yuan / ton in September.

However, with the restart of maintenance devices in mid 10 months, the supply of PTA will increase again. Considering the weather factors, after entering November, unless the force majeure or malfunction stop, the PTA plant will not choose to overhaul in winter. This means that in the next 2 to 3 months, it will be a big probability event to maintain the high PTA load in the domestic market.

Weak support of PX

As the direct raw material of PTA, the correlation between PX and PTA is the strongest. The difference between PX and naphtha oil price has dropped from the highest US $450 / ton in the early August to the current US $340 / ton, reflecting the weak fundamentals of PX.

Recently, 700 thousand tons of Jinling Petrochemical Plant and South Korea SKGC130 million tons of equipment have been restarted. There is basically no maintenance plan for Asia in the fourth quarter of the year. And at the end of October, a new set of 2 million 200 thousand tons of new equipment in India is also open, which will cause a great impact on the Asian PX market.

In addition, the domestic PX inventory is at a historical high level. Although the probability of PTA load will remain high in the four quarter, it will be given

The market has brought support on demand, but it is still difficult to resist the suppression of PX supply side and high inventory. The PX supply and demand side is still weak in the fourth quarter. The difficulty of repairing PX and naphtha oil price is very difficult. PX's support to PTA at the cost side is weakened.

The polyester plant has experienced large-scale parking during the G20 conference. In addition, at present, the polyester products are lucrative and the inventory is at a low level. It is estimated that the polyester load will not decrease significantly in the fourth quarter, and the average load will be maintained more than 80%.

Although polyester loading keeps high, it will form rigid support for raw material ends, but it is not enough to form the power of pulling up raw materials.

First of all, polyester load is basically not up to the possibility, after all, the traditional demand season has ended, the polyester load can maintain the current level has been very difficult; secondly, the original plan in the four quarter of several sets of bottle and chip devices, basically postponed to 2017, the new demand pull failed.

Overall, after 10 mid month, the supply and demand of PTA gradually weakened, and from December to December, the stock of PTA probably entered the accumulative accumulation channel, and the supply and demand side was difficult to push the PTA processing fee to continue to rebound.