International Cotton Spot Price Rise Slowed Down ICE Cotton Futures Fell

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's GDP in the first three quarters was 529971 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% over the same period last year.

Quarterly view, the first quarter increased by 6.7% over the same period, the two quarter increased by 6.7%, the three quarter increased by 6.7%, the first three quarters of the national economy steadily, steadily improving quality.

According to the data released by the central bank, at the end of 9, the balance of broad money (M2) was 151 trillion and 640 billion yuan, up 11.5% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than the end of last month, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 45 trillion and 430 billion yuan, up 24.7% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than the end of last month, 13.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

The scissors gap between M1 and M2 is also gradually shrinking and has reached a low level during the year.

Analysts believe that this means that the deposit is further activated, and the activity of the real economy has improved.

In terms of fundamentals, new cotton

There has been a downward adjustment.

The takeover price of cotton picking and machine picked cotton in Xinjiang was rapidly reduced to 7.30-7.40 yuan / kg, 6.40-6.50 yuan / kg.

The price of lint cotton dropped 600-800 yuan / ton compared with the first half of October. The average price of electronic contract in the national cotton trading market was 14508 yuan / ton in October, up 148 yuan / ton last week, up 1.03%, up 2598 yuan / ton, or 21.8%.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price of 14790 yuan / ton in November, down 210 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 1.40%, up 2440 yuan / ton, or 19.8%.

The average purchase price of domestic grade 3 seed cotton is 3.69 yuan / kg (folding cotton lint 14784 yuan / ton), down 0.07 yuan / jin (last week, 298 yuan / ton) of cotton lint, a decrease of 1.86%, up 0.81 yuan / kg (folded cotton 2985 yuan / ton), or 28.13%.

Among them, the average price of cotton seed purchase in the mainland was 3.67 yuan / kg (14494 yuan / ton of cotton lint), down 0.01 yuan / jin (last week, falling 68 yuan / ton), down 0.27%, up 0.62 yuan / kg (fold cotton lint 2301 yuan / ton), or 20.33%; the average price of seed cotton purchase in Xinjiang was 3.7 yuan / kg (fold cotton lint 14902 yuan / ton).

domestic

In the short term or under downward pressure.

At present, the "high credit limit" measures have not yet been lifted, and the purchasing funds of ginning plants are tight, spinning enterprises are holding down prices and the market is deadlocked.

Downstream cotton yarn prices fell, it is understood that Shandong, Hebei and other parts of the textile enterprises are mostly down slightly cotton yarn price of 100-200 yuan / ton, 40S and below the general size of the downward adjustment of yarn is more obvious.

Prices also showed signs of decline.

In terms of technology, Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF1701) fell below the 15000 yuan integer pass this week, and the possibility of further decline in inertia in the short term is greater.

In summary, cotton prices are expected to be weak in the short term.

International cotton prices tend to be stable in the short term.

On the macro level, the data released by the European Statistics Bureau in October 17th showed that the final value of the euro zone's CPI annual rate in September rose by 0.4% year on year, which was in line with expectations.

In October 20th, the European Central Bank announced that the overnight interest rate would remain unchanged at -0.40%, and the interest rate for overnight loans would remain unchanged at 0.25%.

In October 17th, the Federal Reserve released data showing that the industrial output in the US rose by 0.1% in September. In October 18th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US CPI rose by 0.3% in September, which was in line with expectations. In October 19th, the Federal Reserve's economic situation Brown Book showed that most of the US economy expanded at a moderate or moderate pace, and most regions expected the economic outlook to be optimistic.

In terms of fundamentals, USDA reports that on October 2016 7-13, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in 2016/17 was 77 thousand tons, an increase of 50% over the previous week, a substantial increase over the previous four weeks average.

In 2016/17, the installed capacity of upland cotton was 29 thousand tons, a decrease of 16% from the previous week, a decrease of 24% over the previous four weeks and a new low of the year.

Among them, China signed a large number of 45 thousand tons of Upland Cotton in the United States, a big increase over the previous week's 13 thousand and 300 tons.

This week, the average price of M spot in the seven largest markets in the United States was 73.12 cents / pound, up 1.73 cents / pound from the previous week.

It is understood that the recent price of new flowers in India continued to decline, in October 18th, India's domestic spot price fell 1300 rupee / candle, a decrease of 3%, while nearly four weeks of S-6 cotton prices fell by about 10%, but the India cotton mill quotes are still strong and export volume is reduced.

In addition, the new cotton market in Pakistan was small, cotton prices began to decline, cotton yarn prices continued to decline, of which 30S cotton pure combed yarn FOB export price cut 3 cents / kg, down 1%.

Technically speaking, this week's ICE cotton futures contract (December contract) fell four days, the largest weekly decline since October, and is expected to be dominated by oscillating finishing in the short term.

In summary, international cotton prices are expected to stabilize shortly after last week's pullback.

The pressure on the market in the northern hemisphere and the high yield of cotton in the United States are noteworthy.