The Global Luxury Market Is Going To Stagnate.

According to the global

Market research predicts global luxury

Will enter stagnation or have reached the lowest level since the global recession.

Claudia D 'Arpizio, director of the luxury goods division at Bain, said it is not expected to add a large number of luxury consumers in the next few years.

According to the report, the global luxury market is expected to grow by 4% to 1 trillion and 80 billion euros, or 1 trillion and 180 billion US dollars, at a constant exchange rate.

Global personal luxury sales will remain at 249 billion euros, or around us $273 billion, and will decline by 1% compared with the real exchange rate. It is estimated that in 2017, global personal luxury goods sales will grow by 3% at a constant exchange rate.

Affected by the slowdown in China's mainland economy and the sharp reduction of European tourists in terrorist attacks, the total consumption of Chinese luxury goods has declined for the first time this year.

After experiencing the peak of the government's anti corruption Campaign from 2010 to 2014, the mainland's personal luxury sales this year are expected to grow by 4% to 17 billion euros, or 18 billion 700 million US dollars, at a constant exchange rate.

In 2016, luxury goods sales in mainland China are expected to grow by 29.5% to 224 billion euros, or $246 billion 400 million, which is still unable to offset the fact that the reduction in global luxury goods consumption of Chinese consumers has become the biggest drag on global luxury growth.

However, Claudia D 'Arpizio is still optimistic about the future luxury spending of Chinese consumers, pointing out that China's population is growing, the population is expected to be up to 32 million by 2030, and the middle class and the overall GDP are expanding and rising, and she uses the "Phoenix Nirvana" to describe the potential of Chinese consumers.

The data were divided into regions:

In 2016, China's consumption expenditure accounted for 25% of the world's total consumption, and is expected to grow. Although Chinese consumers spend less on personal luxury consumption, their spending on art collections, luxury cars and high quality design products has increased slightly.

Sales of luxury goods in South Korea this year are on the rise, offset the sharp decline in Hongkong and Macao, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly, while the growth of luxury sales in mainland China can not offset the decline in US and Japanese market performance.

Sales of luxury goods in the United States are expected to decline by 3% at current exchange rates, which is a 2% decline at the current exchange rate, accounting for 33% of global luxury income and 82 billion euros, or 90 billion 200 million dollars, due to excessive sales of department stores, strong dollar and election year.

As the yen continued to grow, Japanese luxury sales increased by 10% over the current exchange rate, but decreased by 1% to 22 billion euros, or 24 billion 200 million US dollars, compared to the previous year.

Japan is still the preferred shopping paradise for Chinese consumers.

This year's luxury sales in Europe are estimated to fall by 1% to 82 billion euros, or 90 billion 200 million US dollars, at current exchange rates.

Claudia D 'Arpizio stressed that although the potential of China's luxury market is unlimited, the growth of China's emerging middle class consumers has been unable to return to its previous prosperity and compete for market share in China.

It may be a fierce battle.

According to luxury goods category:

Cosmetic products are the fastest growing category, with an expected growth of 4%, accounting for 21% of total sales.

Sales of hard luxury goods such as advanced watches declined by 5% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 22% of total sales.

Clothing sales are expected to decrease by 4% over the previous year, accounting for 23% of total sales, and accessories are expected to increase by 1%, accounting for 30% of total sales.

Claudia D 'Arpizio pointed out that with the rise of more and more niche designers, luxury clothing is in a dilemma. Jeans, down garments and sportswear are the most potential products.

In addition, online is the fastest growing sales channel for luxury goods. Sales of online luxury goods rose by 26% in the 3 years from 2013 to 2016.

Sales of luxury retail outlets also increased faster than wholesale channels, while department stores' excessive promotions had a structural decline in sales. Therefore, D Arpizio urged department stores to focus on providing "experiential" shopping.

The fashion and luxury circles in 2016 are turbulent. In the past 10 months, 20 new chief executives and 10 creative directors have been welcomed by all luxury brands, hoping to infuse new blood into the group.

D Arpizio predicts that in 2020, the personal luxury market is expected to reach 280 billion to 285 billion euros, that is, the scale of 308 billion to 313 billion 500 million US dollars, and the annual compound growth rate will remain between 3% and 4%.

Armando Branchini, vice president of Fondazione Altagamma, Italy Luxury Association, points out that after two years of stagnation, the clothing and accessories industry is expected to grow steadily, with an increase of 3% in each category and a 4% increase in perfume and cosmetic products, while hard luxury goods, including jewellery watches, will continue to grow at a negative growth rate, or down by 1%.