Chinese Enterprises Continue To Increase Leverage Supply Side Reform "Deleveraging" Pressure Does Not Fall Or Rise

Recently, the State Council issued the "State Council's opinions on actively and steadily reducing the leverage ratio of enterprises", which helps to strengthen the allocation power of the stock market and form similar to other developed countries.

The situation of long-term sustainable rise.

The document is likely to become the start of a new round of "healthy cattle" in China's stock market, similar to those of the State Council on promoting the reform, opening up and stable development of the capital market in 2004.

On the stock market, high corporate financing shows that business confidence is still recovering. The L inflection point of China's economy has passed. Combined with the continuous improvement of corporate profits, it is conducive to the long term "healthy cattle" in China's stock market, which is essentially different from the 2014-2015 year's "buffalo".

China's M2 in September was 11.5%, 11.6%, 11.4%, 9 12200 yuan, 10000 yuan, 948 billion 700 million yuan, and 948 billion 700 million yuan in September. In September, the scale of social financing increased by 17200 billion yuan, which is expected to be 13900 billion yuan. The former value was revised from 14700 billion yuan to 14697 billion yuan.

Deng Haiqing believes that financial data continues to pick up, and credit, especially enterprise credit supermarket, is expected to verify that China's economic L inflection point has passed.

In September, the social and financial data was the third highest in the year. The new loan was the fourth highest in the year. The medium and long term loans were fourth high in the year.

In September, M2 continued to pick up, M1 continued to decline, and the "M1-M2" scissors gap narrowed in second months.

M1 began to fall from the super high growth rate, indicating that the situation of cash accumulation is changing, and the "liquidity trap" at the enterprise level is being alleviated.

If enterprise funds are used for investment and consumption, they will be reflected in economic data and need further verification.

In terms of loans, the rate of residents' loans declined, but corporate loans remained high.

Because of the real estate regulation in early October, the decline of future residents' loans is a big probability event, so the sustainability of high residents' credit is not strong.

The focus is on corporate loans, especially the medium and long-term loans in enterprises. In September, the medium and long-term loans in enterprises increased by about 450 billion, the highest value in the past 6 months, indicating that enterprises' long-term confidence in the economy is growing.

In terms of social integration, all the financing remained high except for the non discount discounts. The overall scale of the financial integration reached 1 trillion and 700 billion, the highest in nearly 6 months.

It is expected that the overall size of the new social credit will decline, but the scale of corporate social integration will remain high.

Bond market, September

It shows that Chinese enterprises have not worried about the economic downturn and the demand for financing has shrunk. On the contrary, they are continuing to increase leverage, and the "de leverage" pressure on the supply side reform is not going down.

Hai Qing FICC believes that the Central Bank of China needs to maintain a neutral monetary policy to avoid "letting go" and lead to "de leveraging" more and more. In addition, the inflationary pressure has obviously recovered and the inflection point of the global central bank liquidity has restricted the central bank's monetary easing.

According to our "solar system theory", the central bank is the core of the bond market. In the period when the central bank's monetary policy is tightening, we need to keep away from the trap of the bond market for a long time.