The Price Of New Flowers Is Rising, And The Estimated Global Cotton Output In 2016/17 Is 22 Million 310 Thousand Tons.

Although the gap between production and marketing of global cotton has been narrowed in 2016/17, it is still in short supply stage.

Global cotton consumption in 2016/17 has been rising for seventh consecutive years since the 2010/11 year. The end of 2016/17 inventory is estimated to be a new low of 5 years. These data support the global cotton prices in the new year.

According to the monthly supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture, the estimated global cotton output in 2016/17 is 22 million 310 thousand tons, and the estimated global cotton consumption in is 24 million 218 thousand tons, and the gap between production and demand is 1 million 908 thousand tons.

According to monthly supply and demand report of USDA, 2016/17 China

The forecast is 4 million 572 thousand tons, 218 thousand tons less than that of 2015/16; the 2016/17 cotton consumption in China is estimated at 7 million 620 thousand tons, which is 217 thousand tons higher than that in 2015/16; the end of the year in 2016/17 is estimated at 11 million 17 thousand tons, which is 2 million 90 thousand tons lower than that in 2015/16.

As China continued to implement the import and export control policy in 2016, and the price of imported cotton remained high, the average monthly import volume of cotton in 2016 was much lower than the 5 year average.

According to statistics of the General Administration of customs, the accumulative amount in the first 8 months of 2016

595 thousand tons, a decrease of 514 thousand tons compared with the same period, a decrease of 46.3%.

The reduction of cotton is replaced by domestic cotton, which has a certain supporting effect on domestic cotton prices.

In August, the Ministry of pport, Ministry of industry and information technology, Ministry of public security, General Administration of industry and commerce, and the five ministries of quality inspection and Quarantine jointly issued the criteria for exceeding limits and overloading.

At present, the volume of bicycle pportation is reduced by 20% compared with last year, which means that from the beginning of 2016/17, Xinjiang cotton pportation cost increased substantially, or 20-30%.

More than 80% of cotton in Xinjiang is pported through highways, which virtually increases the cost.

New flowers in 2015/16

After the close of the basic store, the reserve cotton was welcomed by the market because of its low price. The auction price was rising steadily. In September 30th, the average price of the cotton reserve was 14384 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the 2015/16 cotton reserve rotation work has been completed, and the cotton auction has accumulated 2659201.44 tons.

After the completion of the reserve cotton production, the price of seed cotton continues to rise, and the market panic is aggravated. At present, the 40% linen seed cotton price in Xinjiang has been priced at 7.70 yuan / kg. In some areas, 40% lint seed cotton price is quoted at 8 yuan / kg, which is equivalent to 16000-16500 yuan / ton of lint cost.

From the morphological point of view, Zheng cotton main 1701 contract fell from 16185 yuan / ton to 13450 yuan / ton, which belongs to the four wave adjustment market. After that, the bull took the lead in the low position, and the price increased 14260 yuan / ton on the warehouse, forming V shape reversal, and five wave rising trend.

At present, there is no solid market pressure, Zheng cotton main 1701 contract will go up further.

The new cotton will be on the market in mid November, and the new flower production in this year is about 4 million 200 thousand tons.

According to incomplete statistics, 30-40% is being hoarding by traders in reserve cotton turnover. Next March, a new round of reserve cotton rotation will start in an orderly way, leaving only 5 months for new flower and reserve cotton to be sold.

The supply of 950 thousand tonnes a month makes the market in the supply easing stage before March next year, and the price of Zheng cotton will return to the cost of new cotton.