The Price Of New Cotton Opens Up To The Market, And It Is Still Doubtful That The Market Will Sustain The Internal And External Demand Of Cotton.

In addition to Chen cotton's dumping and storage, the market gradually began to pay attention to the purchase of new cotton. At the present stage, seed cotton began to go on the market gradually. The price of seed cotton in Xinjiang area remained high, and prices continued to rise in some areas. However, due to cost considerations, the cotton ginning enterprises had rush to harvest and the processing was in full swing. At present, the price of seed cotton purchased in Xinjiang is generally around 6.5-7.5 yuan / kg, and the cost of folding cotton is more than 14500-16500 yuan / ton.

As new cotton is on the market to increase supply, and cotton spinning enterprises generally have certain stocks, the seasonal pressure of zhengmian is likely to show gradually after the recent rise in disk price and the selling profits continue to expand. If the technology is not up to the high level, it is expected that there will still be a need for adjustment. If the adjustment is taken, the support area will be observed in the 14300 areas. Then there will be a better long-term purchase point. We should pay attention to the corresponding technological barriers and changes in the subject matter and grasp the rhythm.

At the present stage, cotton is in the initial stage of listing but has not yet been listed in large quantities. With the end of dumping in late September, the main themes that affect the cotton market are the output of new cotton at home and abroad, the progress of harvesting, and the situation of internal and external purchase and sale.

According to the weekly export sales report of the US Department of agriculture, the United States Department of agriculture's weekly export sales report showed that in the week of September 22nd, the United States sold 5 million tons of land cotton in 2016/17, an increase of 61.8% compared to the same period last year, and shipped 1 million 340 thousand packs, an increase of 59.5% over the same period last year. This shows that since the beginning of this year, US cotton exports were very strong in the same period last year, and the main driving force came from Pakistan, China and Vietnam. However, the recent US cotton exports have slowed down, and this support is not sustainable enough.

Recent data show that as of September 22nd, the US cotton export net sales of 90 thousand tons, down 53.8% compared with the same period last year.

Domestically, with the basic docking of cotton price difference between inside and outside, the import of cotton and cotton yarn is restrained. At present, the market mainly consumes domestic cotton, and the consumption is relatively higher. Thus, it promotes the paction of national cotton reserves, almost 100% of the turnover, and also constitutes an effective support for the futures market in the near future, and cotton prices continue to rise.

But at the same time, we also know that many textile enterprises are in the same position.

The stock replenishment will be maintained until November, and the demand will be constrained at the subsequent stage.

At present, for the Sino US cotton boll opening period, its weather conditions affect the supply expectation, and then affect the futures market trend. Up to now, the US cotton bolting rate is 63%, which will end in late October, and the weather during the boll opening period will still have an impact on crops, especially in low temperature and rainy weather.

Judging from the weather, the tropical cyclone "Hermine" landed in northern Florida in the early September. The southeast cotton area was affected by excessive rainfall, unfavorable to boll opening, and thus promoting the disk. However, the impact was obviously reduced.

According to the weekly growth report of the US Department of agriculture, by the year September 26th, the excellent and good rate of cotton growth was 48%, which is 2 percentage points lower than that of last year, compared with the previous one, which has been improved over the previous period. The growth rate is 84%, which is basically the same as the same period in previous years. The growth rate is 2 percentage points higher than that in the previous period. Overall, the growth of cotton is generally acceptable and has improved in the early stage of Zhou Chiping.

Follow-up

Production area weather is expected to be dry, mainly for cotton bolting and picking, lack of kinetic energy in market speculation and insufficient market demand. In this case, the increase in output caused by the increase in US cotton planting area is expected to have some response on the disk, and the US cotton market is expected to have some stage pressure.

It is understood that in September, the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report shows that the 2016/17 cotton planting area, yield per unit area and output are expected to rise over the same period last year. The planting area is expected to be 10 million 150 thousand acres, down 18.3% from the same period last year. The yield per unit area is 802 pounds / acre, an increase of 4.7% over the same period last year. The output is expected to increase by 16 million 140 thousand bags, an increase of 25.2% over the same period last year, indicating that the expected increase in cotton production in the United States is still strong, and the market is still under pressure, especially when the current weather is good, picking forward and insufficient demand kinetic energy, the market pressure has increased significantly.

In the domestic area, Xinjiang cotton area,

The whole cotton area is growing well, and it is expected that the output will increase slightly. There will be more rain in the Yangtze River Basin. The overall growth of cotton will be worse than that of last year.

According to the prediction of the China Cotton Association, the total cotton output in 2016 was about 4 million 607 thousand tons, down 4.4% compared to the same period last year, and the output of Xinjiang was about 3 million 608 thousand tons, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. The output of the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 16.8% and 24.8% respectively, while the cotton consumption in China in the 2016 year was about 7 million 230 thousand tons, the annual production demand gap was 2 million 620 thousand tons, the annual export demand gap was 2 million 620 thousand tons, the import of 894 thousand tons was removed, and the remaining amount of cotton needed to be replenished by the reserve cotton wheel. In accordance with the previous storage strategy, the cotton reserve market was the first to be around March next year. During the current period to March next year, especially after the market lost the season of the new flower concentrated listing, the market gap effect will appear, and cotton is expected to rise over the long term.

And domestic cotton market pressure should be mainly concentrated in the four quarter, especially in 10 and November will be presented, this period of supply increases, and the continuity of demand is not enough, the stage of supply and demand pattern has loose expectations, this market adjustment is more reasonable.

And then a period of time before the dumping, the domestic gap effect will show, after the price is too high, the advantage of foreign cotton imports will appear, and then the demand for foreign cotton will be driven, so as to promote the market showing strong internal and external weak spiral trend. Next year after March, the market will be the main policy guidance.