The Takeover Price Of Seed Cotton Has Shocked The Market In Just A Month.

According to the current price of seed cotton, cottonseed and the price of cotton in the inner and outer regions, the loss of the cotton processing plant for picking up a ton of hand picked cotton is over 700 yuan / ton, and the loss of processing cotton per ton is nearly 1000 yuan / ton, but there are still a certain number of cotton ginning plants "rush to buy and rush to buy".

In late August, seed cotton was first picked in Turpan, Hami and other places, and the seed cotton purchase price of 40 lint was 6.30-6.50 yuan / kg, although it was lower than that of cotton growers and cotton brokers. It expected 0.50-0.80 yuan / kg, but it was still within the controllable range of the government's agricultural sector, loan banks, ginning plants and cotton spinning mills. What are the factors leading to the explosion of seed cotton purchase price in just one month?

1. Before the middle of October, the acquisition and processing of real estate cotton was very "not giving strength". From the survey point of view, although the Yangtze River Basin and the the Yellow River River Basin cotton area gradually entered the picking period before mid September, the purchase price rose from 3.0-3.20 yuan / kg to the current 3.50-3.70 yuan / kg (38% lint, less than 13% of water), which was more severe than the farmers' sales enthusiasm, and the 400 type was more frightening. Cotton ginning factory There were no plans to open up scales or acquisitions. The cotton traders who had been shuttling in the fields in the past have disappeared, and the entire mainland market was cold and clear. Farmers began to worry about "selling cotton difficultly", and the listing of real estate lint was very few. According to the data of the China Bureau of mass data, as of October 7th, the mainland market only had 4 thousand and 265 tons of public inspection, accounting for 3.02% of the total public inspection.

Two, since late August. Xinjiang Cotton weather is "not to force", hype theme is rich. From late August to early September, the main cotton producing areas in Kashi, Akesu and Korla continued to rain and hail for 10-15 days in the southern part of Xinjiang. Over the past week, the North Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang were again subjected to precipitation and low-temperature weather (the temperature of most parts of Northern Xinjiang was also 6-10 degrees Celsius lower than the previous years). cotton The influence of boll opening, growth and autumn peach harvest is relatively large. Due to the worry about the decline of cotton quality and the reduction of resources in Xinjiang, the ginning factory "spare no effort" to rush to the harvest. From the public inspection, due to the rainfall, the lint grades in Kashi and Akesu are mainly "31", and the proportion of the first grade and the less polluted cotton grade two is higher than that in 2014 and 2015.

Three, cotton business gambling cotton market reappear 2010/11 year "blowout" market. In recent days, some organizations and Speculative Company have continued to look down on China's cotton production in 2016. Some high price "cotton rush" ginning plants have said that the current cotton production and marketing "upside down" is nearly 1000 yuan / ton, and there is no "quick processing, quick sale, quick repayment" condition. Before January, the lint cotton is mainly "stored" to "go up". The cotton price is expected to rise to above 17500 yuan / ton after May 2017.

Four, some cotton trade enterprises, speculative capital into the market pull high cotton costs. On the one hand, the current market price of Xinjiang cotton is about 14300-14600 yuan / ton, and some high priced cotton trade enterprises are still in a state of being flat or in deficit. By pushing up the purchase price of seed cotton, the price of lint cotton has been pushed up, so that the cost of cotton has been lifted. On the other hand, considering the demand and supply of the global cotton market and the trend of the external commodity market and the "haze" of the Federal Reserve raising interest rate, the speculative capital has solved the problem of purchasing funds for the ginning factory.

With the overall increase of seed cotton picking and sales volume in September, the purchase and purchase of cotton loans in full, and the influence of weather in various cotton fields in Xinjiang in 9 and October, the seed price of 40 lint seed cotton rose to 7.50-7.60 yuan / kg (hand picked cotton), and the highest purchase price of seed cotton exceeded 8 yuan / kg in many areas.