Zheng Cotton Continues To Rise Sharply, New Cotton Sporadic Listing Prospects Unpredictable

Since April this year, Zheng cotton has increased by more than 50%. Insiders pointed out that the main reason for this increase in cotton prices is "the difficulty of the package inspection", the "heavy accumulation" and the collective rebound of commodities (4044.18,24.410,0.61%). According to the state Reserve cotton In the Circular of the relevant arrangements, the formula for calculating the reserve price of the cotton reserves was raised, and the reserve price of the cotton reserve increased by 226 yuan / ton from twenty-second weeks to 13670 yuan / ton, which stimulated Zheng cotton to increase its position. New cotton has sporadic listing, but because of the high horse value, picking and rain, the grade is not high, compared with the reserve cotton prices and quality has no advantage, sales are not smooth, the main source of the market is still the two sales reserve cotton.

Gu Bin, chairman of Hefei silver Peng cotton limited company, pointed out that the direct factors affecting the cotton price change in the next year are mainly four aspects: first, how to adjust the new subsidy scheme after the end of the cotton target price subsidy trial; two, Xinjiang. Spin What is the impact of the increase in production capacity on the supply structure of the entire market? Three, the impact of the implementation of the relevant regulations on the national transport overloading on the domestic cotton market; and the four is the impact of the whole macro environmental change on cotton prices. He estimated that the cotton price in the new year will be 14000 yuan / ton as the main axis, fluctuating 1000 yuan up and down, fluctuating frequently, the amplitude smaller and the long-term trend rising.

Due to Texas Prefecture Worries about the damage to cotton were weakened and traders made profits on the four consecutive trading day. Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell more than 2%. The latest report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of September 20th, hedge funds and large speculators held 105367 long positions in cotton, 31010 short positions, and 74357 net long positions, the highest in six weeks.

It is reported that in September 23rd, China's cotton reserve management company plans to sell 30 thousand tons of cotton reserves (domestic cotton), and the actual turnover is 30 thousand tons, with a turnover rate of 100%. The average price is 14025 yuan / ton, and the 3128 price is 14861 yuan / ton. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2016, 69 thousand and 300 tons of cotton imported from China decreased by 25 thousand and 600 tons, a decrease of 26.97%, a decrease of 760 tons and a decrease of 1.08% compared with that of the previous year. In 2016, China's total import of 594 thousand and 300 tons of cotton decreased by 514 thousand and 100 tons in the 1-8 months, and the reduction was 46.39%. In September 2015 -2016 August, China imported 960 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 709 thousand and 900 tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 42.51%.