The Stock Market Is In A Weak Position. It Is Best To Hold A National Day.

Judging from the recent market changes, the stock market seems to have been in a weak position, and a gradual decline may be inevitable. On the other hand, it may be because there is no sustained motivation to stimulate the market after the upsurge, and there is no policy that can make investors see the bright future, so that the market will get new expectations. Golden Week Tourism stocks It will benefit from the outbreak of tourism demand. How weak is the A share market in the near future? According to the statistics of Qing Hui think tank, from 2008 to 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index's performance in the five trading days before the Mid Autumn Festival was 5.57%, 2.23%, 3.61%, 1.21%, 2.93%, 2.21%, 4.93%, and 1.08% respectively.

Since mid autumn festival was listed as a national holiday in the State Council since 2008, the Mid Autumn Festival stock market seems unsatisfactory. Aside from the technical level, I think there are two reasons for this. On the one hand, the Mid Autumn Festival is approaching the National Day Golden Week holiday. In a sense, funds may be in a state of preparation for holidays. Apart from a few big ups and falls, the market performance will not be too active. On the other hand, the Mid Autumn Festival is mostly concentrated in September, while most industries have the saying of "Jin nine silver ten", which will lead to part of the capital flowing out of the capital market, thus weakening the market.

From 2008 to 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index's performance in the five trading days after the Mid Autumn Festival was an open, 7.54%, 7.21%, 2.59%, 2.40%, 0.90%, 1.45%, up 0.55%, and up 2.94%. Over the past 8 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 75% in the five trading days after the Mid Autumn Festival.

From the above two sets of data, we can see that the Shanghai composite index is very different from the Mid Autumn Festival and after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the reason for the two rise is also very simple. In 2014, the Shanghai Composite Index rose before the Mid Autumn Festival, which can be said to be driven by the big market. In 2012, it was due to the eve of the Mid Autumn Festival, when the Shanghai Composite Index hit a 2000 point mark, there was just a technical rebound. Judging from the performance after the Mid Autumn Festival, even the overall downward trend in 2008, as well as the sharp fall in the A share market in the second half of 2015, have all picked up after the Mid Autumn Festival.

It can be seen that Shanghai Composite Index Falling to a low point in the early part of the Mid Autumn Festival is basically a probability event. After the Mid Autumn Festival, we can understand that the Mid Autumn Festival is more suitable for holding festivals. But it should be noted that the statistics of Qing Hui think tank are limited to the five trading days before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. In the period of over five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index accumulative decline data are different, and some have even experienced the rapid decline of the Shanghai Composite Index after the five trading days of the Mid Autumn Festival. This also means that this market is only a short-term market and can not be generalized.

Mid Autumn Festival, a traditional holiday, starts from its essence. A shares There is no direct relationship. Just like holidays, they can not be the criteria for guiding the stock market to go up or down, but they will have similar logic with other holidays. This logic is that the tourism industry will be boosted. Taking into account the coming national day after the Mid Autumn Festival, there will be a wave of tourism, and in recent years, various data show that during the traditional holiday and golden week, the number of people traveling is increasing, and tourist attractions everywhere are hot, which is better than transportation and tourism stocks. At the same time, in the absence of current market hot spots, the capital market is likely to show a very rich imagination to dig out some related stocks.

But the reality we must recognize is that the current stock market is still in the stage of concussion, no matter whether its short-term rise or fall will not indicate that the market will go for a long time or bear a bear for a long time, but it can be determined that the market is constantly exploring the pressure position above, and constantly looking for the support position that can be downloaded. Although the Shanghai Composite Index has been at the top of 3000 points for a long time, from the point of view of market trading, the index does not stand on top of 3000 points for a short period of time. It does not mean that it has stabilized over 3000 points, and it may continue to explore the bottom of 3000 points.

Considering that after the Mid Autumn Festival, there are 10 trading days away from the national day. In these 10 trading days, the domestic and foreign markets will not be excluded from the bad or favorable factors that will affect the market. At the same time, taking into account the golden week, the A share market holidays plus Saturday day break time to 9 days, market funds may be more cautious between these 10 trading days. In addition to various uncertainties and key points, blue chip stocks, especially financial blue chips, may also maintain the role of maintaining stability and maintaining stability in the near future. After all, we all want to have a good national day, and the stock market is the same.