Stock Market Outlook: Capital Unwilling To A Share Market Is A Big Problem.

The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and the risk of interest rate hike is postponed again, which has boosted the importance of the stock market, especially the stock market in emerging markets. However, after the news of the US Federal Reserve's temporarily increasing interest rates was established, the A share market showed a trend of a sharp fall, and the Hong Kong stock market near us also showed significant signs of a sharp fall in the day.

In fact, for Hong Kong stock market The performance of the fall is still within the expected scope. However, in recent months, the market performance has basically shown a unilateral rise, while the largest cumulative increase has reached 20%. As for the A share market, in the recent period, the overall increase is not significant, and the overall volatility of the stock market is basically showing a downward trend. In recent days, the A share market has also experienced a 14 year low of amplitude. The overall enthusiasm of investment in the stock market has declined significantly, and the money making effect has not been as good as before.

For now, the AH share premium index is only 119.51, while the premium rate of A shares is higher than that of H-shares. Perhaps, the continued downward trend of the AH share premium index is also rooted in the strong "opening" expectations of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, which will accelerate the trend of price difference between the two markets. However, in view of the liquidity advantage of the A share market, it is reasonable to maintain a moderate premium rate between the A shares and the H-share market. However, with the further decline of the AH share premium index, it also reflects the arbitrage space of the two market funds, which is also continuing to shrink. This also slows down the capital's "down south" willingness to some extent and reduces the "down south" funds. The diversion of funds in the local market affects the pressure.

However, for the domestic Stock market As a matter of fact, at present, there has been no effective way to get rid of the dilemma of "too many private capital and few investment channels". At the same time, for a lot of funds, it is more profitable, while in the A stock market, the effect of continuous money making is not significant, but it accelerates the flow of domestic liquidity and stimulates more funds to run in more profitable investment channels.

Obviously, under the background of asset shortage, high-quality assets are rare. In the A share market, some of the listed companies whose share structure is relatively dispersed and whose fundamentals are relatively good are undoubtedly vulnerable to many funds, especially those of some small and medium-sized venture capital institutions. As a result, in the A stock market generally relatively high valuation of the environment, some high-quality blue chips, but has become part of the continuous capital stock, and even the important sign of placards.

However, for the near future venture capital capital The successive shares and even the raising of cards are often partial phenomena, which do not essentially activate the money making effect of the entire A share market. In addition, taking into account the high level of control over some heavyweight stocks and even super weight stocks of the national team, it has reduced the activity of capital speculation to a certain extent, and improved the difficulty of investors' follow the trend. In this regard, for the already weakened A share market, in fact, in the short term it is difficult to play a substantive role in activation, and local market speculation opportunities, it is difficult to fully activate the market impact.

It should be noted that the current domestic market has evolved from the previous era of universal speculation to the era of universal speculation. Thus, under the influence of a series of highly leveraged speculation, the earning effect of some second tier real estate market, or the ability to maintain and increase the value of assets, are much higher than that of the stock market in the same period. As a result, for profit driven funds, they are more willing to invest in such profitable investment channels to achieve the goal of maintaining and increasing their assets. What's more, indirect profit is maximized by various means of speculation. However, behind its high speculation, there is a huge speculative risk. In fact, it is a very aggressive way of speculation.

Where there is a continuous money making effect, where the money may go, this may be a true portrayal of the current domestic market, which may also be an important reason why funds are reluctant to accelerate the entry into the A share market. However, one step further is that if the A share market can be reactivated and generate considerable profit making effects, the various funds and even a wide range of speculative funds will still quickly enter the A share market to meet their own asset appreciation needs. However, faced with the tragic lessons of the previous stock market turmoil, the possibility of activating A shares once again is not high.