Mainland Capital Seems To Continue To Flow To Hong Kong Stocks To Find Stocks Like Bonds.

For A shares, unlike the US stocks that have been even more innovative, A shares are currently at a relatively reasonable valuation position, and the resistance to the Fed's interest rate increase is relatively strong.

Secondly, from the perspective of capital flow, we have already analyzed the possibility of capital returning to the United States due to the Fed's interest rate increase. Instead, it is China's own domestic exchange rate fluctuations, resulting in capital flow expectations, which may have a more direct impact on A shares.

With regard to the surge of Hong Kong stocks in the past two weeks and the large number of mainland funds going to Hong Kong stocks every day, a more popular explanation is that under the policy of opening up the total limit of Shanghai and Hong Kong and allowing insurance to participate directly, many funds based on assets shortage logic are or are about to enter Hong Kong stocks seeking undervalued and high dividend yield stocks.

But is this the case? Let me look at several sets of data: (excluding the suspension).

Transaction interval 8.29-9.9)

1, the Hong Kong stock dividend yield of more than 5% shares of 226 stocks, an average increase of 3.33%; dividends less than 5% of the stock rose 4.32%.

2, Hong Kong stocks valued at 0-20 times the share of 776 stocks, an average increase of 4.07%; the remaining stock rose by an average of 4.28%.

3, Hong Kong stocks rose by more than 10% of the total stock of 333, of which only 26 dividends were higher than 5%, accounting for less than 8%.

The data can be seen clearly, the high dividend rate we imagined.

The big cap stocks did not take any advantage over the past two weeks.

Therefore, in a sense, we judge that the rise of Hong Kong stocks is more meaningful by means of the expectation of RMB devaluation and subsequent inflow of assets.

I am also cautious about whether there will be any sustained capital in the Shanghai and Hong Kong through the upper limit and the direct participation of insurance funds.

First, since February, Hong Kong stocks and

The trend of the relative differentiation of the two markets, the AH share premium has narrowed a lot.

Secondly, this year, a large number of funds with "asset shortage" in China are chasing big debt stocks in big consumption. Then, with the uplifting of the valuation of these stocks, the dividend rate has declined correspondingly, but the stock price has not fallen. The most important reason is that we believe in the stability expectation of the market and the logic of sustainable asset shortage.

However, the environment of Hong Kong stocks is much more sinister. After all, the right to speak is still in the hands of foreign investors, and there is little expectation of stability. Once the stock price continues to rebound to the 4 quarter that risks may be concentrated at home and abroad, massive capital outflow and short selling force may occur at any time.

Therefore, the mainland will have a large number of low risk preference funds, based on the logic of asset shortage, dare to participate in this kind of similar roller coaster game, in fact, it is hard to say.

Third, in the four quarter, the game between the market and the Federal Reserve is likely to come to a white hot stage. Last Friday and Tuesday, the Fed's position and market reaction was just a warm-up match. However, the global market has seen significant fluctuations, and the VIX index has risen sharply.

Or the opening sentence, under the nest, there is an end of eggs. If A shares fall much, and the "national team" supports, the fluctuation of Hong Kong stocks may not be enough for the domestic low risk preference funds to bear.

Therefore, we conclude that "asset shortage" and "seeking high dividend and undervalued stock" may be just a gimmick for the past two weeks to avoid the risk of RMB depreciation and Hong Kong stocks.

Of course, it is difficult to follow the trend of continuous flow of mainland capital to Hong Kong stocks.

Therefore, there is no need to worry about the diversion of A shares by Hong Kong stocks for the time being.