Interest Rate Increase In September Is Still A Big Probability Event Without Raising Interest Rates Or Paying A Heavy Price.

Barclays Bank said in its Research Report on August that the data did not change the forecast of the bank after its non farm payroll data were released.

The bank still expects the fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September this year.

In its research report this Friday, Goldman Sachs also raised the rate of interest rate hike in September, from 40% to 55%.

Last Friday, the labor department released the report on non farm employment in August, which is considered to be a pass for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September.

Although the employment figures for single month are not as good as expected, only from the perspective of macroeconomic data, the non-agricultural sector has become sufficient basis for the fed to raise interest rates in September.

At the same time, he said, "I think if the Fed chooses to raise interest rates in September, it will also help the credibility of the Federal Reserve."

Peter Kenny, senior strategist at global market consultancy group, said, "the data did not interrupt the general trend of moderate economic growth" in August.

Often due to seasonal reasons, in the future to increase.

First, the US economy is approaching the two main objectives of the Federal Reserve: full employment and price stability.

Especially in the two quarter, personal consumption grew by 4.4%, indicating that Americans are satisfied with the current economic situation.

Barclay raised GDP growth in the second half of the year to 2.5% on the same day.

Second,

External risks of concern are decreasing.

Barclays research newspaper shows, "we note that compared with Yellen's speeches in March and June, Yellen did not mention the word" risk "in Jackson Holzer's speech.

Therefore, we believe that the Federal Reserve should increase interest rates when the risk is weakened and the financial market is relatively stable. "

Another reason why the market thinks it is possible to raise interest rates in September is that the risk of long-term "no interest increase" is highlighted.

After the Fed chose to stay for 8 months, the market worried that the low interest rate would remain too long, which would not only reduce the profits of financial institutions such as insurance and banks, but also might push up asset bubbles and lead to the future.

Getting out of control and opening the next financial crisis.

But the Fed always seems to be able to find reasons for not raising interest rates.

"Steve, a New York stock exchange trader, said," before the next Federal Reserve meeting, the latest interest rate resolutions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have also been announced and will be included in the Federal Reserve's consideration.

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Although the US non farm figures released last Friday were not as good as expected, the sentiment of buying foreign exchange is still in the market.

However, today is the American holiday, the market is relatively calm, the fluctuation range is also narrow.

Traders pointed out that as the G20 summit is still in progress, the probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rate in September will continue to decrease, and in October 1st, the official basket SDR of the yuan is approaching.

RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.68 on the spot and 6.6821 at night.

Today, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar is 6.6873, and the mid day price is 6.6727.

The spot turnover of RMB against the US dollar was US $1 billion 62 million, which was $8 billion 793 million for the first half of the day.

In the overseas non deliverable Forex foreign exchange (NDF) market, the US dollar / RMB one year variety report was 6.839, and the last day was 6.8318.

Hongkong's offshore RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.6899, and the last trading day was 6.6974..

On Sunday, the Xinhua news agency quoted a list of Chinese achievements from the first meeting of the US dollar in Hangzhou, saying that China and the United States reiterated their commitment to exchange rates reached by G20, including avoiding competitive devaluation and not competing for the purpose of pegging the exchange rate.

In the global market, the US dollar remained stable in Asia early on Monday. The US employment growth figures released last Friday were disappointing, but did not change investors' expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates in the next few months.