The Price Of PTA Has Not Declined Significantly During This Process.

As we all know, crude oil is the most important industrial raw material, almost the basis for the preparation of all kinds of energy chemical products.

Therefore, chemical varieties are closely related to crude oil.

However, the price trend of chemical futures does not always follow the fluctuation of crude oil prices.

How should we view the impact of crude oil on chemical products?

Petrochemical industry has a long production line, a wide range of products and many products. Chemical futures varieties listed on the exchange are PTA, PP, LLDPE (8425, 25, 0.30%), and methanol is only a few of many chemical products.

Simply speaking, crude oil is the raw material of chemical products.

What are the characteristics of the relationship between these chemical futures varieties and crude oil? I think there are two main aspects.

One is indirect.

Crude oil is not a direct raw material for chemical production.

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For example, the direct raw material of PTA is PX, while PX is prepared from naphtha. Naphtha is the direct product of crude distillation after atmospheric distillation.

Therefore, if crude oil is to be prepared for PTA, it will pass at least two steps: naphtha and PX. The price fluctuation of crude oil has weakened the influence on PTA after the influence of naphtha and PX.

This feature is also applicable to PP, LLDPE and methanol.

This indirect nature will undoubtedly restrict the influence of crude oil on chemical futures varieties.

The two is hysteresis.

The petrochemical industry has a long industrial chain. The impact of crude oil price changes on the terminal chemical industry needs to be passed through layers, which is bound to require a process.

However, many times, the rise and fall of crude oil prices did affect the price of chemical products in a short time.

The author believes that this effect is confirmed on the one hand.

It is the expectation of future market performance, on the other hand, it also reflects the psychological change of investors.

However, speculation can not keep the market for a long time, and the price trend will eventually return to the fundamentals.

According to one view, the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on chemical futures varieties was obvious last year, and this year the impact has weakened.

Why do we feel this way? Taking PTA and crude oil as an example, from mid 2014 to February 2016, the price of WTI crude dropped from $107 / barrel to $26 / barrel, or 76%.

In the same period, the price of PTA fell from 7500 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton, or 43%.

Since February this year, the price of crude oil has risen from 26 US dollars to 50 US dollars per barrel, or nearly 100%, but the price of PTA has risen from 4200 yuan to 5100 yuan per ton, or 21%.

Judging from the ups and downs, this year's crude oil and

The correlation between futures varieties is not as good as in previous years.

In addition, when crude oil prices are oscillating, their effects on chemical futures varieties are limited.

Similarly, taking the recent PTA and PP price movements as an example, since June this year, WTI crude oil prices have gone down slightly in the oscillation, and PTA prices have not declined significantly during this process, and PP prices have even increased substantially.

However, when considering the impact of crude oil on chemical futures varieties, it is equally important to pay attention to the absolute value fluctuation of crude oil prices.

In the two time periods, although the correlation between the rise and fall of crude oil price and the price of PTA is very small, the price of WTI crude drops by 1 US dollars per barrel, but the corresponding PTA price falls slightly.

Therefore, under the low oil price, the absolute value of the oil price fluctuation will be more meaningful than the concern about the fluctuation.