The "Desensitization" And "Decompression" Of The Domestic Financial Market Will Continue For A Long Time To Come.

Recalling the performance of the RMB exchange rate since the British referendum in June 24th, when the exchange rate of the major non US currencies, such as sterling and euro, fell sharply, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar continued to decline slightly, but the adjustment range was relatively limited compared with the major non US currencies in the world.

Data show that as of July 12th, the RMB pair

The middle price of the exchange rate was 6.6950, down 1.97% from the British referendum, and the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.6850 on Tuesday, down 1.63% from the closing price in June 23rd.

As at 16:30 on July 12th Beijing time (inter bank exchange market closed day trading), the euro and sterling exchange rate against the dollar before the British referendum before the decline, respectively, up to 2.67% and 12.44%.

In addition, the non US currency exchange rates such as Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc were all close to 3%. During this period, only the Japanese yen and Australian dollar did not show significant depreciation in the main non US currencies.

On the whole, the weakening rate of RMB against the US dollar in the past half a month has been relatively rare in recent years. However, in the environment of Great Britain's shock to the international exchange market, the overall performance of the RMB exchange rate is still more robust than other major non US currencies.

In the background that foreign financial institutions continued to largely empty the RMB exchange rate before, the RMB exchange rate did not exceed expectations when the external heavy financial events brought certain impact.

Hu Yuexiao, chief analyst of the Securities Research Institute, told China Securities Journal reporters that in the case of sharp drop in sterling and euro exchange rate, if the RMB exchange rate is strong, it will have an impact on the import and export sectors.

On the whole, the anticipation of the depreciation of the RMB in the pre market is somewhat excessive. In recent trading days, the RMB exchange rate has shown a very obvious sign of stabilization, especially when the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar on Tuesday did not follow the fall in the middle price.

The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will have strong support at the 6.70 integer threshold, and it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will stabilize at the level of at least one to three months in the near future.

For RMB

In the medium and long term trend, Hu Yuexiao believes that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will not be out of control.

On the one hand, the RMB capital account has not been substantially opened; on the other hand, the internationalization of RMB is still steadily advancing, which will also restrain the RMB from depreciating too much.

In addition, a comprehensive analysis of a number of securities firms such as Guotai Junan and so on, the current agency generally believes that the possible derogation of the renminbi in the year from the external factors such as the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to be relatively limited, and the RMB exchange rate index for the world's major basket currencies will remain basically stable.

Since the end of 6, the result of the referendum in Britain has shocked the global financial market, and the renminbi has been phasing away from other major non US currencies such as the pound and the euro.

It is worth noting that from the recent performance of domestic financial market, bond market, stock market and commodity market continued to be significantly stronger than expected.

Analysts said that after the two rounds of weakness in August and January this year, the RMB exchange rate further showed resilience in the near future, and the overall performance in the second half of the year is expected to be better than market expectations.

Taking into account the internal and external factors such as China's foreign exchange reserves, cross-border capital flows and the Fed's interest rate raising process, the "desensitization" and "decompression" of the domestic financial market will continue for a long time in the context of the stable underlying tone of the RMB exchange rate.