The "Grinding" Stage In The Bear Market Has Thrown Investors Into A Mess.

Since April, the market has closed for 15 days on top of 2800 points.

In the "grinding" stage of this bear market, are investors unable to act? I believe that when we grasp the "four major relationships", we can still take profits and avoid risks and seize market opportunities.

Bear market operation should also grasp dialectics of consistency and inconsistency, index deviating from stock, left side paction and right side paction, positive cycle and reverse cycle, big fluctuation and small details, perfect and imperfect relationship.

The understanding and assurance of all these relations will be based on the profit and loss at the end of the year.

1, the overall situation and the concept of small game.

Judging from the overall situation, the market fell from 5178 last year to the current 2800 point.

If we open the daily, weekly and monthly K-line charts, combined with the current market valuation, only 13.5 times price earnings ratio, lower than 998 points in 2005, 1664 points in 2008 and 1974 points in 2015, it can be said to be a record low.

The 2800 point is clearly located in the low and the bottom areas.

If viewed from a small game, the market has experienced 5178 point to 3373 point, 4184 point to 3537 point, 4006 point to 2850 point, 3684 point to 2638 point, 3097 point to 2780 point, since the 5178 point fell.

The strength of killing is 1805 points, 647 points, 1156 points, 1046 points and 317 points.

At the same time, the rebound strength is getting weaker and weaker, rebounding 811 points, 469 points, 834 points and 459 points respectively.

Today, it has been around the 2800 points for 15 days, with only four or fifty rebounds.

This is like falling ball at high altitude, and the strength of bounce is getting smaller and smaller. Finally, it stops on the ground and doesn't move.

Has the stock market bottled up at present? It deserves our attention.

Although no one can tell whether the bottom of the 2780 points will break, the space below is limited, and the opportunity is greater than the risk.

2, strategy and tactics.

The bear market in China is not a bear market under the economic crisis or financial crisis, but a result of the imbalance between supply and demand and the serious contusion of people.

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In particular, the three fall since last year has caused 3 trillion of the off site funds to be expelled, and the two financial losses in the field dropped from 2 trillion and 400 billion to 820 billion.

The expansion of new shares, as well as the refinancing of listed companies, are still being carried out step by step.

Therefore, based on the current fund, it is unable to push up the market of the 40 trillion capitalization and maintain it above 3000 points, but it can only shrink at 2800 point and 13.5 times price earnings ratio.

However, from the tactical point of view, there are still many operational opportunities in the market.

Because a large number of chips are covered in the 3000 point to 5000 point interval, accounting for more than 30% of the state-owned shares will not be circulated, the chips of large cap stocks are locked by the national team, insurance funds and QFII.

Judging from the Shanghai stock index's daily turnover of only 1100 to 120 billion, there are very few floating chips in the market.

As a result, in the case of insufficient stock of active funds, it is hard to expect an overall and sustained rebound of the index.

However, if we choose to shrink ourselves from the policy orientation and catch the structural hot spots and stocks, there will still be tactical opportunities to make profits.

First, despite the recent fluctuations in the market at 2800 points, the volatility is unpredictable. Although most people in the market do not think that the 2780 point is not the bottom, even 2638 points will be broken. Even some people have seen a bad fall of 2300 points. However, the volume of Japanese trading has shrunk at about 300000000000, and the market has fallen sharply.

The stock market has stabilised slightly, and there are more and more stocks moving against the index cycle. They even suddenly start up, Jedi fight back, even pull up the trading limit, and there are still many opportunities for individual stocks to make profits.

Two, many technical analysts are also capturing the opportunities of the stock market from technology.

Their early days were not optimistic, because although the KDJ index of the daily and monthly lines was bottomed out, the index of Zhou K line was still around 35.

After a period of grinding, the KDJ index of the weekly K line dropped to 24, and the weekend was 28.

If you go through the grinding process for one or two weeks, then the technical indicators of the three line of the day, week and month may lie below 20. At that time, a more vigorous rebound is expected.

Three, there is a strong main body, the use of market technical indicators at the low point, the use of certain stocks of special subjects, the first large number of positions.

3, private enterprises and state-owned enterprises.

The opportunity in the stock market has always been exogenous growth rather than endogenous growth.

In the past, when the gem was generally seen bad in the market, the gem index rose from 585 points to 4037 points, up 6.9 times.

During the period, the growth enterprise market, small and medium sized boards and large numbers of private enterprises appeared to be characterized by high delivery and pfer. In fact, more importantly, these private enterprises, with the help of mergers and acquisitions, asset restructuring and private placement, received an average of 400 million yuan of new funds per household, thereby ensuring the rapid growth of their performance and leading to a continuous surge in share prices.

However, since April, there have been some changes in the policy orientation, such as the return of private stocks to the backdoor. The cross-border mergers and acquisitions of the four industries are strictly controlled, and the standards of backdoor listing are like IPO, and the three years will be postponed.

All these have the meaning of refinancing private enterprises.

The financing policy is geomantic omen.

This year, the policy orientation of the government will be pferred to state-owned enterprises that have not been refinancing and difficult to operate for many years.

The main contradiction and the most important task of the government work is to push forward the supply side reform and the reform of state assets, and introduce private new industries to participate in the reform of state-owned enterprises, so as to realize the pformation and upgrading of state-owned enterprises.

Therefore, the main opportunity for the stock market in the second half of this year is in state-owned enterprises.

Shanghai SASAC has launched a major asset restructuring of the 29% largest shareholder, or controlling power, of the largest shareholder of the state owned trade and three Ai Fu, which has led to the full strengthening of the state owned shell concept stocks outside Shanghai's overall listing expectations.

The central enterprises' small cap shares are 100% of the largest shareholder.

According to the China Securities Journal reported that the authority from the SASAC news, will soon launch the 10 pilot reform of the central enterprises.

So far,

And local state-owned enterprises have 105 companies suspension reorganization, of which more than 80% are curve backdoor, reform and reorganization of the intensity is quite large, after the resumption of cards, like the IPO, the explosive force of the stock price can not be belittled.

On Friday, the Shenzhen municipal SASAC proposed that this year, we should focus on five aspects of market-oriented reform, implement the strategy of "large state-owned assets", optimize the allocation of resources, carry out "going out" mergers and acquisitions, and promote the merger and reorganization of state-owned enterprises to become bigger and stronger.

Affected by this, Shenzhen state owned reform concept stocks have been fully upgraded, and deep textile A has been trading.

According to the reporter's exclusive understanding, in May 26th, the second sponsor sponsor training seminar held in 2016, the CSRC responsible person for the first time explained the latest five directions of the merger and reorganization supervision policy. Among them, the "quality merger and reorganization" application was waiver, directly on the merger and reorganization review Committee; the provision of backdoor listing and IPO "equal examination"; the introduction of preferred shares and directional convertible bonds, the support of financial advisors to provide M & A financing, support for the development of M & a funds, and strengthening of information disclosure and other policies were clearly included.

It can be no exaggeration to say that a wave of mergers and acquisitions which is dominated by state owned enterprise reform and supplemented by private enterprises is coming to the stock market.

In this regard, investors can not fail to attach importance to and actively participate in.

4, opening and closing.

The so-called "Kai" is to have tolerance index 2780 points and then drop 100 points, holding stocks fell by 10% of the ideological preparation and affordability.

The so-called "convergence" is the hands of stocks once the suspension of major asset restructuring, then you hold the stock of profits for the first time "close" (closed), locked.

Wait until the injection of new industries high-quality assets, reborn into a new category of "new shares", after resumption will rise again and again.

When you get more than 100% profit, you can achieve maximum value.

If we have such foresight, dialectical ideas and good mentality, we can surpass the index, share price, book and psychological fluctuations, and find that valuable chips are more important than anything else.

Of course, if we have real stocks with endogenous growth, excellent performance and reasonable valuation, as long as we grasp the dialectics of opening and closing and control the positions well, we will lose time in 2800 points even if we lose.

Once bounce, it is by no means a 100 point increase.