The International Market Has Come To "China Panic". The US Dollar Index Has Rebounded Sharply.

Once the market worries about the slowdown of China's economic growth, global economic growth will be in a predicament.

American analysts are beginning to peddle all kinds of analysis.

Copper prices fell sharply, and the US dollar index rebounded.

Mark Cudmore, Bloomberg analyst, warned that in January this year, the risk of risk aversion in the international market surged because of the sharp fluctuations in China's stock market.

Now the situation is familiar.

Markets are disagreements in recent weeks.

As Bloomberg analyst

Warning, the market is once again "

The edge of trading.

Behind this "China panic" is the double uncertainty of the appreciation of the US dollar and the devaluation of the RMB, which will increase the risk aversion in the market.

If the risk aversion continues to rise, it is likely to repeat the mistakes of the market crash in January.

The risk aversion brought by China in January may again appear in the market unless the dollar appreciates and the renminbi depreciates.

China's economic data released this week are not as good as market expectations.

But this is not a real worry. China's retail sales increased 10.1% year-on-year in the previous quarter, although it has slowed down compared with the previous figure, but this is still a good growth in other economic data.

The real problem is the rising US dollar to RMB exchange rate.

This is a game of anticipation.

Dollar exchange

The higher the analyst, the more worried that unsustainable capital outflows will force the Chinese government to suddenly devalue the renminbi sharply, thus bringing about turbulence in the global market.

In January this year, when the US dollar rose to 6.56 against the renminbi, the market began to panic.

Today, the US dollar will fall by 0.4% against the RMB exchange rate in January.

On Friday, the gap between offshore renminbi and offshore renminbi reached the largest gap in more than three months.

This shows that market speculation is frequent.

The key problem now is that the dollar has once again opened its way of appreciation.

The Bloomberg dollar index has risen 2.8% in the past two weeks.

In the past three months fell more than 7%, nearly two weeks rose more than 2% is not reasonable.

Before the dollar depreciated and the appreciation of the renminbi did not ease.

The index of RMB against a basket of currencies has fallen by nearly 1.2% per month in the past 5 months.

The market's attitude towards the US dollar against the renminbi is the key.

That's why disasters can be avoided.

This requires the Central Bank of China to temporarily suspend the policy of devaluing the renminbi in the context of the continued appreciation of the US dollar.

Otherwise, the market needs to deal with the coming storm.

Of course, when the last trader was scared of the Chinese market, the disaster appeared in the stock market.