The US Economy Will Grow Moderately. China'S Data Will Not Give Any Chance To Raise Interest Rates.

China has always been a top priority for the fed to raise interest rates.

Last week, China's customs and Excise Department released a double dip in import and export data in April. If there is any evidence that China's economy is slowing down further, it may prevent the fed from tightening its policy as expected in June.

Hints from the Fed's 27 in April

The US Federal Reserve announced on the 27 day that it will continue to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged from 0.25% to 0.5%, and there is no clear signal on when to raise interest rates.

According to Thomson Reuters, Federal Reserve policymakers said last month that the US economy was at risk and implied that it would only raise interest rates two times this year.

Last year, the Fed tightened its monetary policy for the first time in nearly ten years, and now only half of the expected interest rate rise last year.

The expectation of raising interest rates has become more unpredictable because the number of jobs in the US released in April was the lowest in 7 months, and a large number of Americans left the workforce.

It is expected that the retail sales data released in April will increase in May 13th, and the value will drop by 0.4% in March.

"The consumer base has shown a weak tone at the beginning of the year, but we expect the second quarter to increase, which will be reflected in the overall expenditure and the specific expenditure on specific items."

James Sweeney of Credit Suisse said, "the retail sales data in April should initially support our outlook for the second quarter."

The analysis points out that the Federal Reserve will declare the world after the meeting.

The statement is more optimistic, and the possibility of increasing interest rates again in mid June has increased.

However, the Fed mentioned the slowdown in economic growth, taking into account the potential impact of the British referendum on the global financial market, and its cautious wait-and-see position is still very obvious.

The Fed expects that with the support of the existing loose monetary policy, the US economy will grow moderately, and the indicators of the labour market will continue to improve.

China Customs announced on Sunday that import and export data in dollar terms declined in April, especially when imports dropped by 10.9%.

It shows that in April, when international commodity prices rebounded, China's weak domestic demand exceeded expectations.

According to a Reuter poll, all imports and exports of the world will drop slightly. A large number of China's trade data also show that China's economic activity slowed down in April after strong market performance in March.

"Trade data has always been important to countries that depend on foreign trade, such as China.

Therefore, the import and export data in April will be of great concern, "said Derek Holt of Feng Ye bank.

In the first quarter of this year, China's economic growth has been stimulated by record bank lending.

But commodity bubbles and rising house prices, as well as widespread debt default and bad loans, have led regulators to cool expectations for further positive stimulus.

It has been reported that the Fed's Stanley Fischer said that the Fed's decision level raising interest rate is "an expectation, not a commitment", which indicates that policy formulation itself is to guide and serve the market, so it is dynamic data that decides policy, not superstructure decides policy.

If the global economy leaves the US economy further out of orbit, the interest rate hike is expected to change.

In the coming week, the Fed may decide whether to raise interest rates in June.

(1) employment data in the United States.

Given that full employment is one of the dual responsibilities of the Federal Reserve (another duty is inflation), Fed officials will be concerned about whether there are signs of steady improvement in the labour market.

(2) consumer confidence.

Consumer confidence is crucial to determine whether American consumers are affected by market volatility and overseas economic weakness.

The May Michigan University consumer confidence index, which will be released on Friday, is also likely to show confidence.

The Fed is sensitive to consumer confidence.

(3) retail sales.

Household expenditure accounts for 70% of the US economy. If consumer sentiment is not optimistic, it will affect their consumption behavior.

(4) consumer price index (CPI).

Because of the drop in energy prices and other import prices, inflation in the US is still far below the target level of 2%, and is expected to remain low in the future.

China's top interest rate decision making factor: China

China has always been a top priority for the fed to raise interest rates.

As early as 2009, the 1800 page meeting of the Federal Reserve, the most important question for policymakers in Washington is whether China can implement the necessary structural reforms to pform the Chinese economy from dependence on exports and investment to domestic consumption mainly because the United States needs the rebalancing of the global economy, so that the United States can have better external demand.

According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, in 2015, the United States exported $116 billion 190 million to China, down 6.1%, accounting for 7.7% of the total exports of the United States and 0.1 percentage points.

This means that, at first glance, China's economic downturn will not have much direct impact.

In fact, the indirect impact of China's economic downturn may still spread to the United States through dozens of countries that rely heavily on China, especially when other emerging markets such as Brazil are weak.

The prospect of accelerated growth and rate hike in the US economy may trigger capital outflows from the weak emerging markets, as well as exchange rate fluctuations and further market turbulence.

This may further push up the US dollar exchange rate, drag down US exports and lower inflation.

China's share of global exports rose from 12.3% in 2014 to 13.8% last year, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and development (UNCTAD) in a few days ago, according to Reuters.

This is the proportion that the United States once occupied in 1968, and since then no country has been able to catch up.

Data released by WTO (WTO) on 18 may show that China's exports amounted to US $2 trillion and 270 billion in 2015, ranking first in the world.

US exports amounted to US $1 trillion and 500 billion, ranking second in the world.