The US Dollar Has Turned Over Many Salted Fish, And The US Dollar Has Finally Been Promoted.

The dollar was hit hard for a long time, and the lowest in the session fell below the 92 mark.

However, fed by the Fed's hawkish officials, the US dollar index launched a "Jedi counterattack", recovering the intraday drop and refreshing the intraday high to 93.04.

On the same day, Fed officials Lockhart and Williams's speeches were all hawkish, making the US dollar finally pushed forward. Over the past few years, the US inflation level has been below 2%. This view has always been held that the Fed's expectation of the US core inflation continued to rise has not been realized. If the inflation level rises slowly, the Fed should not rush to raise interest rates.

According to the price push of federal funds rate futures, traders now think that they will only raise interest rates 1 times this year, in December.

The possibility of raising interest rates in June dropped from 21.6% before the Fed's April interest conference last week to 12%.

Last week, the US Federal Reserve held its interest rate unchanged in April. In the statement, it deleted the description of global risks. It also called "the growth of economic activity seems to have slowed down".

So this is also known by market participants as "let the hawks and pigeons send their own needs".

Atlanta Fed chairman Lockhart (Dennis Lockhart) spoke in Florida, us on Tuesday, saying the market may underestimate the probability of raising interest rates in June.

Lockhart said, "the two time."

Of course, it is possible.

The Fed has several meetings to open, but whether or not to raise interest rates depends on the economic development. "

He also said that it is too early to discuss whether the US inflation rate has reached the Fed's expectations, but there is some evidence that inflation is rising.

San Francisco Fed chairman Williams (John Williams) said that inflation in the United States is in the formal.

Williams is confident of inflation in the US. He believes that if the economy continues to improve, the US economy will support the Fed's interest rate increase in June.

He expressed support for raising interest rates in June, but there will be endless possibilities before the arrival of the June interest rate resolution.

He wants to see

With the continuous progress of the market, inflation has further increased.

In this case, it is appropriate to raise interest rates.

However, the demand for inflation or the labour market does not need to be too high. In these two areas, great progress is not a prerequisite for raising interest rates.

Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank, said: "many market participants believe that monetary policy will continue to be relaxed for some time, while US interest rates will remain low for a longer period of time." Blitheman said.

During the latest statistical period, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) monitored the

Empty warehouse value jumped to more than three years high.

By the week of April 26th, the US dollar clearspace value rose to $4 billion 190 million from $1 billion 850 million a week ago.

Investors have held dollar clearance for second weeks in a row, and the highest value since February 2013.

Some research institutions also expressed different views on the reasons for the recent decline in the US dollar index.

The Credit Suisse foreign exchange strategy team led by Shahab Jalinoos believes that the weakness of the US dollar is mainly due to the rebound in oil prices and the subsequent appreciation of the oil exporting countries. The appreciation of the oil exporting countries is the main "killer" of the depreciation of the US dollar.

The appreciation of the Canadian dollar and the peso in Mexico has a great impact on the dollar's weakness, which is far beyond the appreciation of the euro and yen caused by the divergence of monetary policy.

Credit Suisse wrote that if the United States specified below 92.25, it will show that it has completed a big "double top", the downward pressure on the exchange rate will further intensify, followed by a preliminary downward target of 89.71. If it breaks down, it will further look at the 38.2% withdrawal of the entire bull market in the 89.62/12 area since 2008. This position may have been maintained at first, but it will fall further to the 40 week moving average 88.00..

Lee, an analyst at MITSUBISHI Tokyo BTMU, said on Tuesday that the US dollar has been on the decline since last week's policy decision on the US Federal Reserve held a policy unchanged and passed the message of "not eager to adjust interest rates in June", but before the Fed's confidence in raising interest rates was raised, it was difficult for the US dollar to reverse its downtrend.

The bank also said that according to the current information, it can be said that the US economy has started a bad start this year, and the salary growth rate of the country is also moderate.

The firm US dollar Goldman Sachs insisted last month on its original view.

Hatzius, chief economist of the bank, said in a research report that despite the panic in the market at the beginning of this year, their views on raising interest rates for three times this year have not changed, and the US dollar will rise again in. Jan

Schneider Schneider, the fund manager of Pimco, said that the current price of the interest rate futures market reflects the expectation of a rate increase in the coming year, but this underestimates the possibility of the Fed's faster rate hike in.

If the US economic output and inflation data improve further, the Fed's action may surprise the market and cause turbulence.