Swiss Watch Exports Fell Sharply, Hongkong Market Plunged 38%

According to the Swiss Watch Industry Federation, sales of Swiss watches in March fell 16.1% to 1 billion 500 million Swiss francs, becoming the lowest sales in the same period since 2011.

In January and February, Swiss watch sales fell by 7.9% and 3.3% respectively, while the 3 monthly data showed many industry figures that the worsening trend may continue.

The Swiss watch industry federation said that the scale of the economic downturn is very unusual. Therefore, we must recall the 2009 crisis to find out the law of change rate.

In addition, total sales fell by 16.3% in March due to the weakness of all commodities and major markets.

Faced with a more severe situation, Swiss watch exports accelerated to decline in March, and trade has been in negative growth for ninth consecutive months.

Thomas Chauvet, a luxury analyst at Citigroup, wrote in a research report that

The stock market and foreign exchange rate fluctuate continuously, and the panic of European market tourists and the decline of oil prices caused by terrorist attacks have led to a continuous downturn and even worsening of watch retailers in recent months.

Barclays European luxury analyst Julian Easthope and Laura Levy said the actual sales figures tend to fall.

This is consistent with the recent state of the luxury goods industry, both of which are deteriorating.

They believe export data are again discouraging and suggest retailers implement inventory strategy.

Barclays predicted that the exchange rate effect in March was still positive, down 16.2%.

Regionalization, Hongkong as an example

The largest and most profitable market recorded the worst recession, and its sales plummeted by 37.7%.

The US market dropped by 32.9%, and sales in mainland China fell by 13.7%, greatly reducing the recovery that began at the end of 2015.

Japan and Italy fell by 9.4% and 3.2% respectively.

Among them, only the German region recorded a 2.2% increase.

Thomas Chauvet, a luxury analyst at Citigroup, believes that sales are still deteriorating.

Among them, the continued chaos in the Hongkong market, slow demand in the US and Europe, and low oil prices have a negative impact on demand in Russia and the Middle East.

Japan and some European markets still can not offset the downward trend, and its sales in March are still at a negative growth.

By price, watches export prices range from 200 to 500 Swiss francs, similar to the category of Apple watch prices, both in terms of quantity and value, down 27.1%.

The price range dropped by 20% in watches below 200 Swiss francs and over 3000 Swiss francs.

Watch sales at 500 Swiss francs and 3000 Swiss francs dropped by 7.1%.

Among them, the decline in the price of precious metals and steel watches has been greatly affected, and the most influential aspect of sales is steel and other material categories, including all non-metallic products.

Sales of Brazil, Russia, India and China are weak, the exchange rate continues to oscillate and tourists are frightened by terrorist attacks, all of which have led luxury makers to reconsider new strategies.

Sales in 2016 are expected to show a low single digit growth, similar to last year's sales expectations.

Bernstein analyst Mario Ortelli said that jewellery will be the fastest growing category in 2016, followed by accessories, clothing, perfume and cosmetics, while the watch industry is likely to remain weak.

According to the latest news, Swatch group and Lifeng group do not publish sales data for the first quarter.

Swatch group will announce its first half results in July this year. The company will release sales data from the fourth quarter to March in May 20th.