2016 China Cotton Futures Forum: Cotton Spinning Stage, Opportunity And Hope For Policy

In recent days

China, China

Zhu Beina, President of the association, took part in the roundtable forum entitled "analysis of China's cotton industry policy orientation" and delivered a speech.

The following is the original record:

From the perspective of the entire cotton textile industry, what kind of historical difficulties are facing the Chinese cotton textile industry? What kind of difficulties and opportunities may face?

What is the hope of the policy? Please call the chairman of China Cotton Textile Industry Association Zhu.

I am very grateful to khman for inviting me to attend this conference. Just now, Sun Fu, a representative of Huafu, has discussed some views from the angle of textile enterprises. I agree with him very much.

From the perspective of the association, I want to talk about the whole industry from four aspects.

The first is the situation of cotton spinning enterprises.

We have made a profit statistics, from the main business revenue, import and export as a whole is rising, and the volume is still a lot.

In terms of quantity, textile processing accounts for a large proportion of the world's total, accounting for 50% of the world's total. In addition, according to the data released by WTO, our exports have accounted for 1/3, so in this respect, textile enterprises have great pressure to grow.

The second is whether we can grow again and whether there is any driving force for growth.

Speaking of several guests this morning, we talked about population growth, neighboring countries and the Internet.

Yesterday, the NDRC Yin asked me how much textile accounted for the country's exports.

Yin gave a very high rating of 10%. In fact, we now have a slight decline compared with the previous years. The total textile imports and exports accounted for about 5% of the total import and export volume, but the contribution to the country is also very large.

The third aspect is that the adjustment of textile and clothing structure is relatively fast. Now, as we all know, many areas along the way, just now Sun said, he invested in Vietnam, when the investment may be out of cotton price difference, but now it may not necessarily be from the construction site and employees.

In addition, now we are talking about the relatively hot pfer of Xinjiang, including our current structural adjustment, the pressure of the environment, and the adjustment of the textile structure.

Another important point is that cotton spinning and cotton weaving now account for more than 50% of the world's total.

This morning, Mr. Wang said that many devices were shut off. I think there should be two aspects. Some enterprises are not fully built, but some of them are very good. For example, the intelligent equipment or the most advanced equipment and the least used equipment have increased the output of single equipment, which has improved the level of cotton spinning technology progress.

On the fourth hand, China has a large population and 1 billion 400 million people plus two child policy.

I went to Taiwan some time ago, and Taiwan will increase 20 million people after the second child policy.

Taiwan's enterprises feel that Taiwan's population is only 23 million, and 20 million people come out when the second child is released. So for textile industry, there must be growth. People should wear clothes, and confidence is necessary.

Judging from the operation of the industry, the cotton spinning is relatively stable. From the output, association research and upstream and downstream research, the yarn output has been stabilized at about 19 million tons in recent years, but there is a big difference between the two, and cotton production is decreasing year by year, which is also caused by the market.

This is just a statement. The most important thing is that the purchase and storage has promoted the growth of chemical fiber consumption.

5 years ago, in the "11th Five-Year" period, the China Textile Federation has been promoting the use of chemical fiber varieties, but the effect has not been particularly large. The storage and storage at once increased a lot. We used less than 7 million tons of chemical fiber from 2015 and about 5000000 tons of polyester fiber. I think there will be more development in the future. From our prediction, the fiber processing volume in the whole country should be around 53 million tons, and then there are about 15% cotton that may be less than 15%. In a few years, it may still be small.

So I agree with Mr. Sun's view that no matter what kind of policy the reserve cotton will take, it will be suitable for us to use it.

In terms of policy, I want to be divided into two aspects, one is the target price subsidy policy formulated by the state. I think the price return is closer to the international market price. In this respect, I agree with you very much.

In addition, subsidizing farmers should be the same, but the fundamental purpose of this policy should be conducive to the development of industry, especially the structure, for example, whether the formulation of policies can be more close to quality and focus on quality.

Last year, everyone said that because of the weather, the quality of cotton decreased. I think the weather is only one aspect. It must be related to the policy. Policy formulation and guidance make the weight more important because the subsidy is made up according to the weight.

If the policy continues like this, although we are meeting here, no matter how many meetings I have, I think it will be difficult to carry out it.

I don't know how the NDRC sees it. I think we should let go of the quota. If you want to put it on the top, let the enterprises go to the market below.

We all say that the market is an invisible hand, but the government's hands have been regulating it. I think regulation is necessary, but it is conducive to the development of the market. From the cotton spinning industry, as long as the clothing consumption is more, cotton spinning can be good. From the cotton market, as long as the textile enterprises are good, the whole market will be fine.

Thank you, chairman Zhu. From a set of data provided by president Zhu and Sun Zong's statement, we can see that China's textile industry is still the backbone in the global market.

In the future, China's textile industry is only a small growth space because it has taken up a large proportion of the global market, but it is not going downhill.

Next, with a little bit of time, there is a topic that may have an impact on the policy. It is also a matter of great concern to everyone, that is, the westward shift of textile production capacity.

The recent momentum is clear to all of us. Let me share with you Mr. Zhu from the perspective of the industry to briefly share the westward shift of textile production capacity. In particular, moving to Xinjiang, is it the general trend or the expedient measure? In addition, how to solve the bottleneck.

President Zhu would like to comment in simple sentences.

I want to give you a brief account of the situation in Xinjiang. Sun sum pays in Xinjiang. How they invest, how to arrange them, why they invest, and how much they invest, most of them have studied.

I'm just talking about things.

On the whole, I saw Wang's big screen this morning about how many contracts and how much investment he had in Xinjiang. From my perspective, I only looked at the final result.

What was the result of last year? In 2015, the output of Xinjiang yarn was about 550 thousand tons, and in 2014 it was 430 thousand tons, an increase of 120 thousand tons.

That's how big numbers are, so we can see how much capacity is running here.

So I feel that the state has given Xinjiang a lot of policies. The state is considering all aspects of the strategy, and the enterprise must consider its own development and social responsibility.

The state most wants to solve the employment problem, so no one will go or go in the later stage.

Xinjiang is based on cotton and textile. In the absence of policies, sun always invested in Xinjiang. This is due to various considerations, such as cotton resources.

From the perspective of clothing, the most important thing is printing and dyeing, because we are doing cotton spinning. We hope to do professional and proper consideration from the perspective of environmental protection.

The towel that Xinjiang is invested in by Jane Liya has built a sewage treatment plant by herself. Although the country has policy support, from all enterprises, more than 80% of them are invested by themselves.

In addition, I have a feeling that the largest investment and signing of cotton spinning has passed, and the final development will be more rational in general.

From the perspective of national policy, I think the policy is unchanged for 5 years. Now there are various statements. But from the continuity of policy, I hope that there will be no change at least for the next 5 years.

The state has already made a promise, and no matter what development it is, the country should keep its policy unchanged.