The Expectation Of RMB Devaluation Is Gradually Disintegrating

The expectation of depreciation is gradually disintegrating. Analysts believe that the RMB exchange rate will continue to stabilize in the short term. However, we still need to guard against changes in the Fed's interest rate expectations.

Analysts believe that the RMB exchange rate will continue to stabilize in the short term, but we need to be vigilant against changes in the Fed's interest rate hikes.

Reporters learned from the foreign exchange trading center that on the 8 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.4733, which was 26 basis points smaller than the previous trading day.

On shore, the renminbi appreciated slightly. As of press release, the RMB exchange rate on the shore was 6.4715, up 14 basis points from the previous trading day, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.4850, up 11 basis points from the previous trading day, and the difference between the two places was 135 basis points.

Thanks to the recent series of policies of monetary authorities against market arbitrage speculators and the multiple factors of the Fed's interest rate hike, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized and rebounded.

According to press statistics, since March, on the coast

The exchange rate rose by 1.22%, rising by 800 basis points and the offshore RMB exchange rate by 1.01%.

The latest statistics released by the central bank in April 7th are RMB.

Short term stabilization provides evidence.

Data show that China's foreign exchange reserves in March amounted to US $3 trillion and 212 billion 579 million, the former value was US $3 trillion and 202 billion 321 million, the annulus ratio increased by US $10 billion 258 million, ending the trend of a 4 month continuous fall and supporting the RMB exchange rate.

In addition, it is worth noting that the central bank also issued the US dollar.

(SDR) as foreign currency reserve data for reporting currencies, in March, it was 2 trillion and 280 billion SDR.

Yao Yudong, director of the central bank's Financial Research Institute, said recently that at present, the global economy is facing a shortage of liquidity, the renminbi is actually a strong currency, and the world economy is in urgent need of RMB to supplement liquidity.

The central bank said that using SDR as the reporting currency of foreign exchange reserves would help to reduce the valuation changes caused by frequent fluctuations in the exchange rate of major countries, and more objectively reflect the comprehensive value of foreign exchange reserves, and also help to enhance the role of SDR as a bookkeeping unit.

In this regard, analysts believe that in recent years, the Fed's interest rate hike slowed down, the pressure of capital outflow in the emerging market eased significantly, the foreign exchange reserves in March ended four consecutive falls, far exceeding expectations, to a certain extent, verified the depreciation of RMB against the US dollar pressure slowed down.

And the monetary authorities are holding up the RMB exchange rate, which is a heavy blow to the short sellers in the RMB market.

In addition, the recent economic data released indicate that China's economy is stabilizing, which helps to ease the expectation of RMB depreciation and boost market confidence.

Comprehensive judgement, the RMB exchange rate will continue to stabilize in the short term, but we still need to guard against changes in the Fed's interest rate expectations.