How Big Is The Risk Of The National Cotton Reserve Going Out Of 2016?

According to the state

Monitoring system survey data show that as of April 1st, the national sales rate was 63.5%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points over the same period last year, but 19.2 percentage points slower than the normal years in the past four years, of which the sales rate in Xinjiang was 57.3%, lower than that in the whole country.

Sales rate, "

The acquisition and processing progress is fast, but the sale of lint and slow progress in storage are the main features of the cotton market in 2015/16, both in 2015 and in China.

The decrease in quality is related to short length, large horse value and low fracture strength, which is also related to the rapid shrinkage of domestic cotton consumption.

In recent years, the state has implemented the cotton growers in the upper reaches.

To start the low price spinning of the downstream cotton textile industry.

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In 2015, the proportion of cotton textile mills in the mainland being jointly purchased or sold with ginning companies was very low. What about 2016?

Cotton processing enterprises are still "marginalized".

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The national reserve cotton rotation will be normalized, and the national development and Reform Commission responsible person said that it would strive to digest inventory for 5 years, even if it does not count the number of late rounds, only about 10000000 tons of cotton reserves will be digested about 2000000 tons per year.

In addition, the annual import volume of about 1000000 tons of high-grade cotton imports has declined significantly compared with the previous years. However, imports of high count yarn and combed yarn such as India, Pakistan, Vietnam and Indonesia are becoming more and more intense, and are also destined to become the spoiler of high quality cotton demand by textile enterprises.

Although the target price has dropped by 500 yuan / ton, the seed cotton purchase will still lose money.

Chemical fertilizer, cotton seed and plastic film can be reduced to 0.20 tons per kilogram per ton of cotton linen. But at the end of March, there are 576 cotton ginning plants in Xinjiang to participate in the public inspection, and 178 of the Corps participate in the public inspection. In 2016, the total amount of cotton inspection in Xinjiang was only 3 million 271 thousand tons. Even if it was simple and average, the processing capacity of each factory was only 4300 tons of lint, and it was just enough to reach the "bottom line" processing capacity of the Xinjiang Bao factory enterprise. It was also considered that there was a certain number of 400 enterprises in 2015, and there was no market purchase. The contradiction between the huge capacity and the cotton resources is still outstanding in the short term. 2016

The increase in cotton risk has led to a decline in credit support for state-owned policy banks and other commercial banks.

The state completely withdraw from the storage and purchase policy, and the cotton processing enterprises in the territory were pushed to the forefront of the market. However, in the 9 consecutive years, the "high sale and low sale" in 2014 and 3128B yuan lint in 2014 were 14200-14500 yuan / ton in the first half of 2015, and 13000 yuan / ton in the first half of 2015. In 2015 9 and October, the cotton lint was 13300-13500 yuan / ton in scale in the first half of 2015. Now it has fallen to 11500 yuan / ton. Cotton has once become a hot potato, and the quality of lint has declined considerably due to weather and cotton seeds. Losses have become commonplace. Therefore, the loan banks have tightened their credit, and some loan qualifications have been canceled. Since 2014

The "short board" of cotton varieties can not be made up overnight.

In the 2011-2013 year, three years in a row, no matter what farmers or seed companies or dealers are concerned about, they only have "high yield, high linen and medium maturity". They are indifferent to the spinning indexes such as fiber length, horse value and intensity. Many seed companies' breeding and R & D directions are very wrong. When cotton returns to the market, all problems are exposed.

The difference between Xinjiang's machine picked cotton and Australian cotton and American cotton is great. The cotton picking equipment is not an obstacle. In the final analysis, it is a question of cotton seeds. If the cotton seed problem is not solved, the cotton factory or leasing processing line will be devoted to the sale of low quality and high-grade cotton.