Polyester Usher In Seasonal Production Peak Season

Demand has entered the seasonal upgrading stage, and it is expected to continue to drive polyester consumption. The start-up load of polyester industry has been showing a continuous upgrading trend in recent years.

As of March 30th, the domestic polyester plant load was 83.1%.

From 4 to May, the start-up of polyester plant is expected to maintain high load operation. The average load of polyester plant has exceeded the level of the same period last year, close to the level of commencement of the peak season in previous years, and the space for further improvement is limited. Later, it is concerned about the sustainability of its high load start up.

In March, with the restart of some PTA maintenance devices and the anticipation of new devices, the PTA price showed an interval oscillation pattern and failed to break through the previous high point.

In addition, the contradiction between polyester and terminal still exists.

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After a substantial increase in price, although the price has dropped slightly in recent years, and the efficiency of the bomb and weaving industry has been expanded, production enthusiasm has improved. But when the market is rising or falling, the shipping atmosphere of the bomb factory is down, and the factory stock is beginning to show signs of rise.

The recent pullback of international crude oil prices is mainly driven by the strong dollar index, a large increase in EIA stocks and the gradual deepening of the frozen production conference.

EIA released data showed that as of March 25th, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States decreased by 16 thousand barrels compared with the previous Sunday, while the US crude oil inventories increased by 2 million 300 thousand barrels a week compared with the previous week, and the stock increased by 9 million 360 thousand barrels a week.

The current market is focused on the upcoming oil production conference in mid April.

Other countries have said they will not abandon the market share before sanctions. If frozen production agreement is reached, it will not improve the pattern of oversupply in the crude oil market.

In addition, the share of us production cuts will be basically filled by Iran's expected increase in output.

The author believes that the structural repair of crude oil spreads has basically been completed. If there is no substantial change in the fundamentals of the latter period, the probability of short-term weakness will be greater.

Sinopec issued a PX contract price of 6300 yuan / ton in April, up 205 yuan / ton from last month's settlement price.

It is understood that, from 4 to June, although there is no overhaul plan for domestic PX devices, there will be over 3 million tons of PX devices in the Asian region for overhaul and maintenance period of 30 to 45 days. There is a downward trend in market supply, which is expected to re enter a tight equilibrium state, and PX price trend is likely to rise and fall.

The price of PX is relatively strong in recent years, and the increase of start-up load of downstream PTA plant has certain support for it. But the most important factor is that the PX device in Asia is coming to the maintenance season.

On the whole, in the short term, the PTA market is expected to come and go in the inventory cycle when the supply of PTA decreases and the downstream polyester keeps high.