The Stock Market Is A Barometer Of The Economy.

The traditional description of stock market in textbooks is that the stock market is a barometer of the economy.

But in the past, domestic stock investors often complained that the economy was growing so fast that the performance of the stock market was so poor.

It means that the stock market is not well managed.

However, the stock market is more or less related to the economy. If it has nothing to do with it, why do investors spend so much time studying the macro economy?

Therefore, there is another widely accepted saying: stock market and economic relations, just like dogs and dog owners, dogs can sometimes run in front of people, sometimes can fall behind people, but eventually they are led by others.

But in fact, many times, capital market

They are far from the fundamentals.

Especially for A shares, they are far away from the economic fundamentals.

It is estimated that most people do not know that domestic stock market research was once a technology analysis world.

The time is about 1990-1995 years, that is to say, China.

In the 25 year history, 20% of the investors were engaged in technical analysis.

Of course, many people are still doing technical analysis, but mainstream analysts disdain this kind of analysis which does not require professional background.

But actually, for now

For example, technical analysis can completely explain the phenomenon which cannot be explained by fundamentals.

According to my logic, the A share market is highly regulated, and regulation will lead to price distortion.

For example, A shares and H-shares share different prices, and some prices are very different, or even 5 or 6 times the share price.

This can not be explained by fundamentals.

Even though the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong has been in operation for more than a year, the premium rate of A+H has not declined.

B shares have been open to domestic investors for 15 years, and the difference between them and A shares is still large.

It is said that the first American master to do technical analysis would live in an isolated place without any information.

Every day after the stock market closes, someone will send him the data of the day's paction, and he will predict the stock price trend according to the volume of paction and paction price.

Because the change of quantity and price is actually the reflection of all information, and he should avoid all kinds of market noise to influence his judgement.

I should be one of the earliest people engaged in the macro research of the capital market in China. The start time is 92 years.

But at that time, in the era of technological analysis, I could not reach the qualification of professional analysts in the market.

Today, technology analysis methods are no longer elegant.

But for a regulated market, what is the role of basic analysis in a market with large capital and large turnover rate?

Therefore, in such an era of information flooding and rapid dissemination of information, there are really too many messages to interfere with our judgment, and there are too many interests or emotions to affect the objectivity and independence of the analysis.

Since the change of price and quantity can reflect all information, why can't we get rid of the plaguing of macro and micro fundamentals by means of technical analysis?