If Britain Retire, Europe Will Damage The British Economy, And The Pound Crisis Will Follow.

According to the findings of foreign currency strategist released by foreign media, the strategist believes that if the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU, the British economy will deteriorate and may lead to the pound crisis.

Britain will hold a referendum in June 23rd this year to decide whether to withdraw from the EU. 45 strategist interviewed this week believed that the British economy would not benefit if the referendum was withdrawn from the EU.

39 of the surveyed strategists indicated that Britain's return to Europe would damage the UK economy and the other 6 did not see much change. Among the analysts interviewed last month, except for one who said that the euro would not be affected, the rest of the analysts thought the British economy would be hit.

Investec strategist Ryan Djajasaputra said, "the negotiation time will be longer than some people's expectations. Earlier this week, a government report said that it might take 10 years, so the business community will be under uncertainty.

A survey released earlier on Thursday showed that the prospect of a possible referendum in the UK could last month spread to the dominant service sector in the country, slowing the expansion of services to the slowest level in nearly three years.

In addition, the survey was conducted by British analysts. De Europe Whether it will lead to the sterling crisis is not so sure, 35 of them believe that there will be a pound crisis, and 34 people will not say.

Jane Foley of Holland cooperative bank said, "it depends on what constitutes. crisis Definition, but the sharp depreciation of the pound is enough to bring about major uncertainties in inflation and investment.

According to recent polls, the support rate will be very close in the referendum, but the idea of staying in the EU will dominate. Even so, the pound fell to a seven year low last week as London mayor Johnson publicly supported Europe.

The valuation is more than a month ago. Valuation They are all 1-2 cents below. A number of recent data have pushed the market to postpone the expected time for the Bank of England to tighten its policy.

However, analysts believe the pound will rise against the euro. A previous survey showed that the European Central Bank (ECB) will almost certainly lower its interest rate on the negative deposit tools in March this year, and may expand the asset purchase plan.

Since the Conservative Party won the general election in May last year and Prime Minister Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on whether Britain stays in the EU, the pound has fallen by about 9% against the US dollar, indicating that most of the risk of European risk has been digested.

Foreign media survey also shows that analysts expect that the pound will be around $1.40 a month after the month, which is basically at the current level. After three months, the referendum will be held at that level, and the pound will rise to 1.46 in the year after the US dollar.

Analysts expect that the euro will fall to 0.772 against the pound in a month, and then drop to 0.739 in six months, down to 0.724 in one year. The estimate for last month's survey was 0.753, 0.738 and 0.714 respectively.