Li Daokui: Economy Out Of The "Haze" Of The Bottom And The Way

From the perspective of China's economic operation, we are indeed in a "fog and haze" puzzle.

This confusion is not only from the international voice but also from the different expectations of the domestic financial market.

Internationally, the trend of China's economy has attracted a lot of attention.

In recent years, especially since the opening of the Davos forum, Mr. Soros has made a very clear series of views on the Chinese economy. His basic view is that the Chinese economy will have a hard landing, and the Chinese economy is likely to become the new source of the global financial crisis which is more intense than in 2008. That is to say, the Chinese economy will trigger a new round of international financial crisis, and its harm degree and intensity will be greater than that of 2008.

"Haze" also comes from fluctuations in domestic financial markets.

In January, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by more than 20%. In January, the global average stock index dropped more than 10%, the largest in history.

There is also a declining trend in the international financial market.

Investors gave high hopes to the change of the SFC's leadership, which rose 2% on Monday, but over 6% fell on Thursday. This also shows that China's financial market is very concerned about the current overall economic performance.

In this regard, Li Daokui said that 2016 is a very critical year for structural adjustment.

The current situation of China's economy can be summed up as "three have": the first is the bottom line, second is the way, third is the bright spot.

"Why do we have the bottom line? Because after nearly 40 years of rapid development, China's economy is still an economy with huge potential for growth.

The per capita development level of China's economy is at the global level, at most in the middle reaches. The level of per capita development is only 1/5 of that of the developed countries.

Despite the difficulties encountered by the Chinese economy today, the three most important growth factors remain with us. "

Li Daokui emphasized.

The first is stability and support.

The development of the government is very important; second, the continuous growth of human capital, which includes both the continuous improvement of the level of labor education and the improvement of the health level of the workforce. Third, China's economy continues to open to the outside world.

"There is a basic principle in the study of economics, that is, if you engage in international trade and investment with others, you will be like who, if you engage in international trade with developed countries and attract foreign investment or investment, you will be in line with him.

Through international trade and investment, China's economy must be pformed and upgraded, forcing our enterprises to learn new ideas. "

The experience of world economic growth over the past 70 years tells us that as long as these three things are done correctly, an economy will surely continue to rise, and it will surely achieve modernization.

Li Daokui further pointed out that although China's economy has encountered various problems, there are still ways to solve it.

The central government has proposed five things to do in 2016, such as going stockpiles.

The inventory of real estate will decline, and this year we should be able to make some progress.

Why? Because the situation of real estate is diversified. The inventory situation of a second tier city is not serious at all. On the contrary, investment must be strengthened in the short term.

For example, Shanghai has only three months' inventory and Beijing is nine months. So there are some second tier cities in the first tier cities. By the middle of this year, there will be a boom in real estate investment and development. Only in this way can we stabilize the housing prices in the first tier and second tier cities, otherwise it will be an economic and social problem.

So real estate inventory will make some progress this year.

In addition, Li Daokui believes that China

There are many new highlights.

First, the operation of China's real economy has shown signs of upward trend.

Last year, the growth rate of the real economy was 6.3% in the non financial sector. From the overall operation situation, the second half of this year has been improved. This trend continues in the 1 and February of this year, and the rising trend of the real economy is gradually picking up.

Last year, an important factor driving China's economic growth was finance. Last year, the financial sector accounted for about 9% of the total economic weight, while the value added of the financial industry last year was as high as 15.9%, close to 16%. This is a huge pulling force.

This year, the financial industry is expected to slow down due to the volatility of the stock market and the volume of pactions may shrink. So this year's financial industry should not expect to maintain its growth of 16% last year. The financial industry may have slowed down this year compared with last year, but the real economy is picking up.

Second, the speed of investment and development of the real estate industry this year is expected to rise in June.

Last year, the growth rate of real estate investment and development was zero growth in December. In June this year, the growth rate of real estate investment and development will return to positive growth. We expect that the whole year will be around 5%.

Real estate has rebounded and manufacturing may have declined, which is generally flat or slightly rising.

This year's investment in fixed assets is basically flat or even slightly higher than that of last year.

Third, the reform of the second child policy.

In the second half of 2016, China will increase 2 million newborn babies, and it can also boost consumption, because these babies are born in families that have been nurturing by generations. We predict that the second child policy will account for the growth of GDP0.2% consumption.

Li Daokui finally said,

The economy has the foundation, the method and the bright spot.

If the major measures proposed by the state this year include inventory and capacity to go in place, various measures for new urbanization can also be put in place. The reform of state-owned enterprises can appear landing policy. In the second half of 2016 and the first half of 2017, this cycle of China's economic growth rate may be bottomed.

The prerequisite is that all kinds of reform measures must be in place, especially the new urbanization and the reform of state-owned enterprises.

If the growth rate of China's economy in 2017 and 2018 not only stabilized but also rose slightly, then the 13th Five-Year plan would have a very good start.

By 2020, the first centenary goal can be achieved.

"There are many uncertainties in 2016, including exchange rate issues and stock market issues.

Our basic view is that the exchange rate issue can be resolved through reasonable management of expectations and management of capital flows. In 2016, the exchange rate will remain basically stable and the depreciation rate will not exceed 5%.

In the three or four tier cities, inventory is serious and how to stock up. From the point of view, we must speed up urbanization and try our best to settle the population in towns and villages who are still in the countryside, and solve their children's education and medical problems.

This is not only the supply side reform, but also the demand side reform.

Rural residents can settle in cities, domestic demand will increase, employment labor supply will also increase, and supply side reform will also be made.

The supply side structural reform proposed by China is totally different from that of the supply school put forward by Mrs. Thatcher and President Reagan in 1980s. The supply school emphasized only two things at that time, one is tax reduction, the other is deregulation. The structural reform of supply side that we are going to carry out today is far more than tax reduction and deregulation. There are also a lot of important tasks of deepening reform. Once these reforms are in place, they can not only increase efficiency on the supply side, but also demand side.

Next is deleveraging.

China's macro leverage ratio is not prominent in the world's major economies, not the highest. Debt to GDP is 250%, which is basically the same as that of the United States, while Japan is as high as 400%, and many countries surpass our level.

It should be said that China's economic leverage ratio is not high, because China's national savings rate is very high, official statistics is 50%, our own estimate is 38%, even according to 38% of the national savings rate, also more than twice the national savings rate.

In a country with a high savings rate, a modest increase in leverage is not only a violation of the law, but also a manifestation of efficiency.

The key to the problem is to adjust the leverage, the central government's debt needs to be improved, and there is not a huge, highly mobile bond market, and many financial operations are difficult to operate.

Another is cost reduction.

There are two main things, one is the cost of financing is going to drop. Now many enterprises borrow money through high interest rates, which causes great difficulties for their operation. The second is to reduce taxes and taxes related to labor employment.

Now this level is very high.

Generally speaking, if you hire a worker, if you spend one yuan, you need to spend 4-5 cents on five risks, one gold and other related expenses. This is the key to reduce costs.

There are also short boards.

The key is to help the poor. We should make great progress this year. Generally speaking, 70 million of the poor people, if we want to accurately help the poor, less than one hundred billion will be able to solve the problem. The key is to have a mechanism.

Generally speaking, the short board will make significant progress this year.

The last is capacity.

It is hoped that within the next five years, the production capacity of the steel and coal industry will be reduced by about 10%.

"Reducing production capacity by 10% in five years is not enough for the whole capacity to go.

Our point of view is that the pace can be quicker and the intensity can be greater.

We think that the capacity to go to production is much smaller and much less difficult than the Asian financial crisis in 1999, because the employment situation is very good now, and the financial operation of banks is much better than that in 1999. If we had taken the determination to come to capacity at that time, we should make significant progress.

Li Daokui said.