Speculation About When The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates Is Also Everywhere.

At present, emerging market countries are generally facing the situation of capital outflow.

Once the capital outflow intensifies, it will lead to an oversupply of domestic currency in the foreign exchange market of emerging market countries, and the demand for foreign currency is in short supply. The currency will depreciate more, and devaluation will stimulate a larger capital outflow and fall into a vicious circle.

At present, emerging market countries are generally facing the situation of capital outflow.

Once the capital outflow intensifies, it will lead to an oversupply of domestic currency in the foreign exchange market of emerging market countries, and the demand for foreign currency is in short supply. The currency will depreciate more, and devaluation will stimulate a larger capital outflow and fall into a vicious circle.

Coupled with Greece's debt crisis, the European debt crisis is likely to break out in the future.

At that time, the US economy was thriving and the global asset prices shrank sharply, and the big bottom of American capital really began.

Taking the gold and US dollar prices from January 2014 to August 2015 as an example, the trend can be divided into three stages.

In the first stage, from January 2014 to October, the US dollar rose by 9.9%, and gold fell to 1140 US dollars from 1205 US dollars per ounce.

In the second stage, from November 2014 to January 2015, the US dollar rose by 7.1%, and gold rose from $1140 to $1301 an ounce, both of which rose.

Why? Because of the Ukraine crisis.

During the crisis, the rise of the dollar made the ruble devalue by half. What would Russia do? Russia would throw rubles, or change it into dollars, or buy gold in dollars.

Therefore, the US dollar and gold will go up at the same time.

The third stage is from February 2015 to August.

After the crisis, the dollar and gold returned to normal.

For example, from January 22, 2015 to March 13th, the US dollar rose 6.2%, and gold dropped from $1301 to $1158.7 an ounce. In March 13th May 18th, the US dollar fell 6.04%, and gold rose from 1158.7 US dollars to 1223.9 US dollars; in June 18th July 21st, the US dollar rose 3.5%, and gold dropped from 1171.25 US dollars to $1171.25 per ounce.

From the above analysis, gold can be seen.

Basically, it can be decided by the trend of the US dollar.

So how do we judge the trend of the US dollar index? In fact, the key to judging whether the US dollar will continue to strengthen is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or raise interest rates at any time.

From December 2008 to June 2015, the Federal Reserve played a set of "

Taijiquan is dazzling.

From "a period of time" to "a long time", from "before mid 2013" to "late 2014", from "at least to mid 2015" to "quite a long time" and then to "patience" until the "interest rate hike will depend on the future economic data", the Fed is worthy of being a rhetorical master. It is very cautious and vague about the rate hike expectations.

When the Fed raises interest rates, speculation is also everywhere.

According to media reports, "the president of IMF believes that interest rate hikes will be better in 2016", "World Bank chief economist recommends that the Federal Reserve raise interest rates until next year".

This kind of news is full of media, but most people do not know what they are talking about.

Now I would like to talk with you about why the industry has consistently agreed that the Fed will raise interest rates.

Since 2008, the Federal Reserve has bought a lot of junk bonds through the three quantitative easing policy, making the securities of the securities holders become worthless cash instantly.

In 2007, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was only $890 billion, and by the end of 2014, it had changed to $4 trillion and 500 billion, a 4 fold increase.

These capital entered the real economy, thus promoting the recovery of the US economy, but at the same time it brought the risk of inflation.

Of course, the Fed's strategy is to export inflation to the world, and global food and energy prices have been rising. In recent eight years, the average annual inflation rate in the US is only 1.4%.

What about the parts that can't be exported?

Come up with a way.

In the past, commercial banks had no interest in storing excess reserves to the Fed, and now the Fed has given 0.25% of the excess reserve interest rate, which is a huge margin with the current interest rate of less than 0.1% of interbank lending in the US, which has attracted about 2 trillion and 700 billion dollars of huge capital "sleeping" in the Federal Reserve's account.

Before October 2008, the excess reserves deposited in the Federal Reserve amounted to only 2 billion dollars.

The Fed cannot afford to bear this interest rate indefinitely.

So how can we get these funds back into the market? The way is to raise interest rates.

Specifically, it is divided into three steps:

The first step is to hoard cash.

On the one hand is the excess deposit reserve lying on the Federal Reserve's account. On the other hand, the US listed companies are also waiting for it.

According to Moodie's report, as of May 2015, the total amount of cash held by US companies was US $1 trillion and 700 billion, of which Apple held us $178 billion, Microsoft held us $90 billion 200 million, Google held us $64 billion 400 million, Pfizer held us $53 billion 400 million, CISCO held 53 billion US dollars.

These are only publicly listed companies. Others such as investment giants, manufacturing giants, mining energy giants and so on are eyeing, waiting for the opportunity to increase interest rate.

The second step is to create interest rate expectations.

In this regard, the Fed is absolutely a good hand, has been vigorously exaggerated interest rate expectations, its various kinds of rhetoric in the United States around the world to accelerate the escape from emerging market countries, to return to the United States.

The third step is to create crises, declare interest rates and loot the world.

Once a new emerging market crisis, the dollar fled from this emerging market country, followed by the rapid collapse of the economy of the emerging capital market with weak capital strength and rapid decline in asset prices, when the market is full of bargains.

At this time, the Federal Reserve has announced that raising interest rates and raising interbank offered rate will directly wake up the bloodthirsty capital that has been sleeping on the Federal Reserve.

Driven by profit driven nature, these bloodthirsty capital will not enter the domestic market of the United States, but will take the lead in the emerging market countries to converge on bargains, thus completing a perfect capital invasion.