Whether Cotton Price Falls To Eight Thousand Or Nine Thousand Is Rumor

Recently, "Nanjing

The industry spring festival forum has attracted much attention, and many views and expectations have been released in the market.

One of the most heated discussions is the gossip about "cotton prices drop to eight thousand or nine thousand, and textile companies have to take a look."

In this regard, let's listen to the personal views of the special textile expert Mr. Wu Faxin after attending the meeting.

The price of cotton will reach eight thousand or nine thousand? This is not what I said. It was voted by the state in January 13th.

The company and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jointly held the "cotton industry spring festival Symposium" on the guests.

At that time,

A large textile enterprise with "coarse grains" said that if the quality of the stored cotton meets the requirements, and the price to the Jiangsu factory will be around 10000 yuan, the purchase will be considered.

At that time, the guests answered, according to this calculation, excluding the cost of public inspection and pportation, the price of dumping and storage should be 8000-9000 in order to meet the target price of about 10000 yuan to the Jiangsu factory.

I wonder if the price of such a low price will be painful for the parties concerned. I think they should not feel bad about it.

At present, under the background of "going to stock, going to capacity and deleveraging", the cotton will also be the general trend. And in 2015, the announcement of the national reserve cotton warehouse clearly stated that the "coarse grain" that was mixed into the reserve cotton store could be digested as soon as possible. Why not?

Xinjiang cotton used to be a good quality cotton representative for textile enterprises. However, after years of tossing, the "peaceful evolution" has become a "coarse grain" in the eyes of downstream textile enterprises. Part of it can only be used for coarse yarn and air spinning. It is like a big family girl falling into a maid. This may be another big international joke after A share.

In 2015, the company that participated in the photo storage told me that some cotton reserves had a good look at the indicators. When the cotton was pulled to the factory, the Phoenix became a crow. It only had to admit that it was bad luck. It seriously dampened the confidence of the textile enterprises to take part in the auction again in 2016.

In fact, the output and consumption of cotton in China is not difficult to calculate. Even if it can not be very precise, it can be counted eight or nine or ten by reasonable mathematical statistics.

We must not fail to do so.

Fuzzy data is good for everyone.

In January 14th, on the Internet, "China or consider selling part of the stock of cotton" is being brushed. The views and data in the text are actually a cliche. There is nothing new. But after the article came out, it has not seen the parties concerned come out "rumor" or "explanation".

In 2016, if the reserve cotton is actually delivered to the Jiangsu plant at a price of 10000 yuan, the competitiveness of domestic yarn will be enhanced.

According to the calculation, the price of the corresponding raw cotton combed ring spinning is about 15000 yuan / ton, and the price of the 32 combed ring spinning is about 16500 yuan / ton, so that the price of imported yarn, especially 21 or 32 sticks, can be temporarily excluded from the national market for 21 years.

China's small textile mills also get a temporary breathing opportunity. It is possible to use time to change space and slowly digest national cotton reserves. Although time will be long, it is better than seeing no hope.

At the meeting in Nanjing, there are also several large cotton spinning enterprises, such as Jiangsu Yueda, Nanjing new cotton and Nantong big rich company. They say that even if the price of cotton is up to 10 thousand per ton, it will not be purchased, because after the pformation and upgrading of the past few years, most of the production plants are 80 or more yarns demanding high cotton. If the cotton reserves can not meet the requirements, they will go abroad to find a way.

At the Nanjing conference, Li Nan, general manager of Louis Da Fu's cotton Department, was also very brilliant.

He said that in addition to the Chinese factor, cotton consumption in other countries is not much oversupplied, and the use of non cotton fiber in the global textile industry is also increasing. With the development of chemical fiber technology, the use of chemical fiber products has already caught up with the use of cotton fiber, and the phenomenon of cotton being marginalized is spreading.

2016 is the year of monkey. Cotton prices are "full of monkeys" and are not destined to be very peaceful.

I think the future of the cotton market will be very severe. If the international oil price lingers around 30 dollars per barrel for a long time, the price of PTA and polyester fiber will go down. At that time, the international oil price will drag down the international cotton price plunging.

It may not be long before it can see eight thousand or nine thousand yuan a ton of cotton, or even lower.