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    From 2016 To 2020, The Average Annual Economic Growth Will Reach At Least 6.5%.

    2015/12/30 19:24:00 30

    Economic GrowthChina'S EconomyMarket Quotation

    Foreign media is informed that next year, the Chinese government will raise its deficit to 3% in 50 years.

    After the central economic work conference was deployed for major work next year, the Ministry of finance has clearly increased the direction of fiscal policy and phased increase in deficit rate.

    According to Reuters, sources from the Ministry of Finance and Chinese policy advisers who offered advice to senior leaders said they could help mitigate the impact of structural reforms on the domestic economy.

    It is expected that the Chinese government will significantly raise the deficit rate next year, the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP, which is likely to rise to 3% or slightly higher, and does not rule out the possibility of further upward adjustment in the next few years.

    The source also mentioned that the government expects to set the bottom line for the GDP growth target next year to 6.5%, consistent with the previous "13th Five-Year" target.

    Last year and this year, China's goal.

    Deficit rate

    They were 2.1% and 2.3% respectively.

    Since the 60s of last century, this deficit rate has not reached 3%.

    The current fiscal revenue and expenditure conflicts are intensifying. The central authorities put forward monetary policy to be steady and aggressive fiscal policy.

    Against this background, the size of China's deficit will expand further.

    Earlier, analysts from the Academy of Social Sciences, finance and economics, and so on, judged that the deficit was about 3%, and the deficit was about 2 trillion yuan.

    On the 26 th of this month, during the eighteenth session of the twelve NPC Standing Committee, Lou Jiwei confirmed that the Ministry of Finance had previously set up a report of three yuan built in 14 trillion and 700 billion yuan for local stock debts in the past three years.

    Lou Jiwei said at the time, "next year's initial plan is to increase the deficit between central and local governments. Then the local government will issue bonds".

    risk

    In large areas, new bonds are smaller in size, thus gradually releasing risks.

    In 2016 and beyond, the provincial government can issue bonds within the balance limit and borrow new and old.

    The principle of replacement is determined by the provincial government on the basis of debt repayment needs and market conditions. The central government will no longer affect the replacement quota, but it will make necessary organizational coordination to avoid the impact of local competition on issuing bonds to the market.

    China's Ministry of finance did not respond to the Reuters report, but Lou Jiwei, Minister of finance, made clear at the national financial work conference held on Monday.

    In accordance with the deployment of the central economic work conference, we should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and intensify efforts in 2016 and in the future.

    It is mainly reflected in the following aspects: increasing the deficit rate stage by stage and enlarging the deficit rate.

    Deficit scale

    We should increase the issuance scale of national debt, rationally determine the new debt limit of local governments, further implement the policy of reducing taxes and lowering taxes, resolutely curb all kinds of arbitrary charges, firmly refuse to accept "overdue tax", leave more funds available to enterprises and market players, increase the overall financial funds and revitalize stock funds, use funds in the "knife edge", adjust and optimize the expenditure structure, reduce the general expenses of "three public" funds, and arrange the livelihood expenses according to sustainable and basic principles.

    The central economic work conference convened earlier this month put forward the major economic tasks of the next five major tasks next year, including capacity production, inventory elimination, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation, emphasizing the importance of "vigorous fiscal policy" and "prudent monetary policy being flexible and appropriate".

    Feng Xuming, a researcher at Tsinghua University's China and world economic research center, said that the above fiscal policy continued the tone of last year, and that fiscal policy will follow the two main lines of "reduction" and "increase". Besides conventional financial policies, it will also rely on quasi fiscal policy.

    Yang Zhiyong, director of the Financial Research Office of the Financial Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the deficit rate should be adjusted flexibly along with the overall economic situation, and it will not necessarily remain high or low for a long time.


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