China'S Foreign Trade Will Still Face Greater Downward Pressure Three Factors Analysis

It is known that some small and medium

Enterprises are generally faced with profitability challenges, industry enterprises have accelerated differentiation, and foreign trade imbalance has not improved.

The industry expects that China's foreign trade will still face greater downward pressure.

Orders "glued" state has not improved, industry enterprises "two levels of differentiation" pattern aggravated

This year, China's foreign trade faces greater downward pressure. At the end of this year, there is no trend improvement.

From the recent disclosure data analysis, the import and export volume of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong and other foreign trade towns has gone down to varying degrees, and trade imbalance and structural instability are prominent.

The growth rate of imports and exports in Guangdong and other provinces has widened.

Jiangsu Province in the near future

The export structure of clothing, bags, footwear, toys and other labor-intensive products increased by 10%, while the growth rate of exports of high-tech products was only 0.9%.

Huo Jianguo, the former director of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and vice president of the WTO Research Association, said that the proportion of high value-added products in China's total exports is still relatively small, and the comparative advantage has not yet formed.

The situation of some enterprises holding export orders deteriorates, and the phenomenon of "losing money and making profits" is obvious.

Many foreign trade executives told reporters that due to low demand and depreciation of the euro and other reasons, the European and American traditional market orders declined, the paction was sluggish, and the difficulty of raising prices increased.

"The price of raw materials is decreasing, and buyers are lowering prices. Even if there is a single, enterprises will have to make a loss offer to protect the market."

Ocean grain and oil industry (Fangchenggang) Co., Ltd. is a wholly foreign-owned enterprise co invested by COFCO, ADM and Singapore WILMAR. Huang Qunshan, general manager, said: "orders are not optimistic, even if trade volume goes up, sales are going down."

Industrial enterprises accelerate the "shuffle" and "two levels of differentiation" is obvious.

The responsible person of the Qingdao hair group said that under the overall decline of textile and garment exports, the big business of the 20 thousand people depended on the steady growth of the brand industry, such as UNIQLO, WAL-MART, and so on.

"This trend drives the polarization of foreign trade enterprises", that is, large enterprises should pay more attention to brand and channel, while small and medium-sized enterprises will be further biased towards manufacturing and processing links while the number is decreasing.

Ma Minglong, director of the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce, said that the downward trend of some traditional industries and the upward trend of some emerging industries have become increasingly prominent.

From the perspective of Canton Fair, the light industry, represented by clothing and furniture, is heavily pressurized. Most enterprises say it is difficult to operate. However, the emerging industries represented by consumer electronics, intelligent terminals, photovoltaic and other industries have significant vitality and good momentum.

Three factors lead to "hard work" in China's foreign trade

Reporters interviewed learned that in terms of China's foreign trade in the difficult period of pition, structural upgrading still needs a long pition period.

At this stage, the global economic recovery is weak, labor costs are rising, and money market shocks are the main factors that restrict import and export growth.

The sluggish external demand market leads to difficulties in receiving orders.

Throughout the international market, the recovery of major economies is still unstable and uneven. In addition to the relatively good growth momentum in the US, the recovery of the European Union and Japan is still facing great pressure.

"The pace of recovery of the world economy is slow, and Global trade continues to slump, which has a strong impact on China's foreign trade, especially exports, and its growth rate has dropped markedly."

He Jun, senior researcher at Ampang consulting.

Entrepreneurs are also generally reacted. The difficulties brought by the downturn in external demand are difficult to make in the short term.

Suzhou Xin Da hardware products, Suzhou Hongwei electrical appliances and other enterprises said that the company's main market in Europe.

The weakening of the European economy and the depreciation of the euro led to a decline in customer profits and cancellation or delay in orders. A Poland customer orders fell by 30% over the same period last year.

The comprehensive cost has swallowed up the traditional advantages.

The comprehensive cost is high, the traditional competitive advantage is weakened, especially the rising labor cost is the main reason for the enterprise's competitive advantage, which restricts the expansion of production and export by foreign trade enterprises.

Huo Jianguo said that although China's export quality and efficiency have improved in recent years, there is no fundamental change in the mode of competition based on price advantage.

In addition, the competitive means of Chinese enterprises have not yet penetrated into the international market, and the ability of active marketing and finding market demand needs to be improved.

The Boston consulting firm reported that the cost index of China's manufacturing industry rose to 96, only 4% lower than that of the United States (100).

The Tokyo business survey data also showed that 4-9 enterprises collapsed in of this year because of "China risk", which increased by 40% over the same period last year.

In these enterprises, the most important reason is the cost increase, accounting for about 80%.

Currency fluctuation amplifies enterprise price risk.

Huo Jianguo said that the QE policy implemented by the European Union and Japan led to a significant depreciation of its currency and adversely affected China's foreign trade.

Some business circles believe that the recent devaluation of the RMB is generally beneficial to export business, but it also causes customers to haggle, and some decline even exceeds the depreciation rate.

A person in charge of a foreign trade enterprise in Suqian, Jiangsu, told reporters that it is difficult for enterprises to judge the long-term trend of RMB exchange rate because of the process from order to settlement.

Many customers have also become cautious in trading, and some have delayed payment, which virtually increases the risk of contract performance.

"Since this year, China's import value has continued to deepen, which is mainly affected by falling prices in the international market."

Zhao Jinping, Minister and Research Fellow of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

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No "collapse" risk "steady growth" impact or increase

During the interview, most enterprises believed that despite the existence of various pressures, China's foreign trade competitiveness remained stable and there was no risk of collapse.

China Machine

Bai Xuefeng, director general of the comprehensive department, said that although the export growth slowed down or even negative growth occurred in some periods, the global market share of China's electromechanical products has steadily increased. "We should note that our country is already the world's largest exporter of goods and the second largest economy and has the basic characteristics of a complete industrial system. We should not be blindly optimistic or pessimistic."

Enterprises say that external shocks will further increase the "steady growth" of our foreign trade industry.

Jian Yiwen, chief executive officer of Nanning US worth business limited, believes that the overall international economic environment is bad, which will make China's foreign trade declining trend.

Some people said that the RMB exchange rate is still under the pressure of depreciation and need to be released. The downward trend of commodity prices caused by the international political turmoil will continue, which will increase the risk of import deflation to our economy. Although the prospect of the TPP agreement is uncertain, it will also have a greater impact on some industries, especially the export oriented garment and textile enterprises.

How to rely on domestic policy factors to compensate for the possible external impact injury has become the focus of attention of enterprises.

First, pay attention to maintaining the stability of foreign trade policies.

Some enterprises believe that it is urgent to reasonably stabilize foreign trade expectations.

It is expected that the pressure of foreign trade growth will remain strong next year. A head of an enterprise in Guangdong said, "if we continue to adhere to the higher growth target, it may cause some local foreign trade policy dynamics to distort, and bring drawbacks such as' fiscal subsidies to buy export quotas" and trade arbitrage. It is better to reduce local pressure through reasonable growth targets and ensure effective implementation of the steady growth measures.

The two is to refine and perfect the rules of steady foreign trade policy.

A number of provincial grass-roots business workers responded. Some foreign trade steady growth measures were difficult to implement due to lack of supporting rules, and they should be further improved.

For example, several opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting steady growth of imports and exports, put forward "enhancing the pertinence and effectiveness of port inspection and checking the costs of lifting, shifting, warehousing and other issues without any problems, such as the central government's financial burden".

Yueyang, director of the trade relief Department of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce, believes that the study of international trade rules should be strengthened.

"China's accession to the WTO in 2016 is about to expire.

After the expiration, what changes will be taken in our litigation environment, we should bring them into the research focus as soon as possible.

The three is to improve the quality and expand the scope of industrial cooperation.

Zhao Minglong, a Research Institute of the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the advantage of China's manufacturing price is gradually disappearing. It can consider combining China's technological advantages with the advantages of cheap labor in Southeast Asian countries, and with the help of the "one belt and one road" construction opportunity, striving for more infrastructure investment and opening up the coastal industrial belt.

The use of China ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund and industrial cooperation as a link will form a marine economic supply chain, industrial chain and value chain.

Zhang Handong, President of the Zhejiang International Economic Research Institute, said that cross-border electricity providers had obvious effects in the fields of bonded imports and stimulating consumption, and suggested that the general trade export should be promoted through the B2B mode, so as to reduce the intermediate links of SMEs export.