The Global Cotton Go Stock Mode Has Been Opened.

At present, cotton has no obvious sexual price advantage compared with other varieties of the same season. The cotton growing area in main producing countries in 2016/17 is difficult to increase, while the consumption of most of the main selling countries is still increasing. Moreover, China's demand is also moderately warmer in 2016. At that time, global cotton will be further stocking and market pressure will be further reduced.

With the fall in cotton prices, cotton production area and output in main producing countries began to decline in 2012, and global cotton demand began to recover slowly in 2012.

The situation is gradually improving.

As of 2014/15, production is still more than sales, so inventory is still accumulating.

According to the US Department of agriculture, the world's cotton production in 2014/15 is estimated to be 25 million 970 thousand tons, down 1.1% from the same period last year, consumption of 24 million 80 thousand tons, an increase of 0.8% compared with the same period last year, and the final inventory of 2442 million tons, an increase of 8.7% over the same period last year.

The inventory consumption ratio representing supply and demand level continued to increase, from 94.1% in 2013/14 to 101.4%.

After entering the 2015/16 year, the cotton planting area of the main producing countries continued to decrease, and the global cotton output also showed a downward trend under the background of El Nino, while the demand continued to improve. The output began to be smaller than the demand, and the inventory mode was officially opened.

According to the US Department of agriculture, the annual 2015/16 cotton planting area is 31 million 240 thousand hectares, a decrease of 2 million 920 thousand hectares compared with 2014/15, a decrease of 8.6%.

The yield per unit area was 723 kg / ha, a decrease of 40 kg / ha compared with 2014, a decrease of 5.2%.

In 2015/16, the total output of cotton in the world was 22 million 610 thousand tons, down 12.9% from the same period last year; consumption was 24 million 270 thousand tons, an increase of 0.8% compared with the same period last year; the end of term inventory of 2276 million tons, down 6.8% from the same period last year.

The global consumption of cotton stocks representing supply and demand level dropped to 93.8% from 101.4% in 2014/15, but the overall level is still at a high level.

Analysis of the global cotton stock composition is not difficult to find that in recent years, nearly 60% of global cotton inventories are concentrated in China's cotton stocks, while China's cotton stock is mainly stored in state reserves. After 2011 years of rapid roller coaster price decline, the state started a 3 year storage to protect the farmers' income, and increased the demand at that time (by increasing the subsequent supply), supporting domestic cotton prices at a relatively high level in 2011-2013 years, forcing textile enterprises to import more, thereby stimulating international export demand, and thus supporting cotton in the past few years.

While protecting the farmers to support the market, it has damaged the development of cotton textile industry, the cost of enterprises is high, and the export and domestic sales of downstream products fall with the decline of the global economic downturn. Under the upper and lower attacks, the profit of cotton textile enterprises is further compressed, and many enterprises have begun to fail or turn off.

In order to alleviate this contradiction, the state abolished it in 2014.

The target price system has been changed to the target price system, and the last straw that supports the market after the purchase and storage is cancelled, and the cotton price is broken down. After that, the cost of cotton enterprises has gone down and the gas has begun to recover. However, the huge amount of stock in the state reserve still needs time to digest, which brings the sequelae to the weak market. The cost of supporting the market in the past 2011-13 years is to suppress the current market.

If we cut out China, the whole world

The end of 2015/16 inventory is at the level of 8 million 580 thousand tons, representing an inventory consumption ratio of supply and demand level of 50%, which is still lower than that of 56.9% in 2014/15.

At low point, farmers' willingness to grow cotton has obviously declined, and cotton production area and output in India, the United States, Pakistan, Brazil and other main producing countries have been declining. The demand of other countries in China, except for China and Pakistan, has maintained a growth trend. However, China's demand has dropped, but the purchase and purchase of exports have led to global export demand, and the relatively slow development of cotton, such as India, Turkey, Bangladesh and Vietnam, has been limited by the decline of the whole ball economic growth. And because of the high cotton prices in China, the export of Chinese cotton yarn has stimulated domestic consumption. So we can see that consumption is still increasing in recent years, which leads to the global cotton demand warming after 2011 years, leading to other countries and exporting countries taking the lead in opening up the stock mode. In fact, from 2012, the ratio of crop soybean (3718, 12, 0.32%) and corn (1912, 3, 0.16%) declined in the same season.

In the past 2011-2013 years, the domestic stock was still accumulated through accumulating stock, but in 2014, the storage and withdrawal was cancelled until the 2015 year. However, the inventory remained high, which constituted a more obvious pressure on the domestic market. The pressure would eventually be pmitted from the trade side to the outside market, just like the domestic import and export of the international market.

In this situation, the domestic and foreign cotton markets show a strong external and weak pattern as a whole, which leads to an international market driven by export demand. Although supply and demand level (except China) is almost the same as that of 09, there is still a lack of momentum.