By The End Of 2015, Global Cotton Stocks Were Extremely High. What Will Be The International Cotton Price?

Recently,

The Ministry of Agriculture said that by the end of 2015

The stock is "very high". It is estimated that by the middle of 2016, nearly 50 billion pounds of cotton will be stored in warehouses around the world. These inventories are equivalent to 94% of the total cotton consumption in the world, more than two times the average from 1980 to 2010.

Although the global cotton demand for 2015/16 crops exceeded the total output for the first time in nearly six years, the reality is still not optimistic.

Despite the decline in cotton production in the world in 2015, the end of the world cotton inventory remained at a high level of more than 20 million tons.

Global cotton consumption has not been much improved, and it is still warm. Even if the world does not produce cotton for one year, its inventory can also meet the cotton demand for one year.

China is facing a particularly serious problem. At present, China's cotton stocks occupy nearly 50% of the world's cotton stocks, and its inventory consumption ratio is as high as 182.13%. Even if it does not produce cotton for two years, it can basically meet domestic production needs.

The global cotton stock is huge, and international cotton prices are difficult to pick up.

It can be seen that the international cotton price in 2011-2015 is decreasing gradually. Unless there is a big change in global cotton demand and inventory, the possibility of international cotton price rebound will be very small.

Judging from past analysis, there is no doubt that China is an important factor affecting the trend of international cotton prices.

Cotton prices, economic growth and cotton prices in China

Factors such as tariff quotas remain unchanged, which impede international cotton prices.

From this point of view, the opportunities left to international traders are obviously limited, and risks above opportunities will be a major trend in the future.