It Is Difficult To Assess The Risks Of China'S Economic Slowdown To Their Respective Economies.

In addition to the Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan's offices in Beijing, the Fed and the European Central Bank seem to be studying China with the same data as other parties, and the data may be different.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, eliminating a major source of uncertainty.

As a result, in addition to the subsequent steps of the Fed, China's dynamics have become the focus of investors and policymakers' observation lists.

It can be said that China's influence is increasing day by day.

If the Chinese government allows the yuan to depreciate further and focus on a basket of currencies instead of a single dollar, it will eventually lead to deflation, which may delay or reverse global interest rate rises.

"We are trying to get the best information... We are in touch with any relevant person.

But I don't think we have more information than any other side, "Brad, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, told Reuters.

Economists have been skeptical about China's economic data for many years, trying to get a glimpse of China's economy through concrete, steel or electricity production data.

Now such indicators are of little use, as China is pforming from an export driven manufacturing nation to a more difficult service economy.

"I don't think China will provide such detailed information," Brad said.

Although some people say that economic data is improving, China is still a black box in many ways.

The pace of structural reform is a challenge, which makes historical data less useful in predicting future trends.

Even Chinese officials admit that their statistics raise questions.

Li Keqiang, premier of the State Council of China, said in 2007 that China's data were "artificial".

A senior European Central Bank has said that in recent years, professional forces have been trained to study China. However, the discrepancy in data and the pace of China's reform have brought great challenges to their judgement.

They pointed out that there is a lack of import price index or comprehensive demand side data on national accounts, which are some obstacles that lie ahead.

Australia

Ten analysts at the Beijing office studied various aspects of China's economy, including wealth management, capital flow and so on.

The Bank of Japan also has offices in Beijing.

The Bank of Australia does not want to express its views directly on this article.

However, Christopher Kent, an assistant governor of the Bank of Australia, said at a conference last month that researchers helped the central bank get "real feelings" about China.

In addition to China's direct impact on the US economy, the Fed is also concerned about the impact of China's declining demand for commodities on the economies of Australia, Canada and Chile.

One of the first things that Coplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Robert Steven Kaplan) took up in September, is to let his researchers analyze China's data well.

His employees estimate that a reduction of one percentage point in China's economic growth will reduce the US economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.

"Understanding China's economic slowdown is very necessary because China is still the largest economy contributing to global economic growth," Coplan said in his first speech after taking office.

Little contact

In the eyes of the Fed insiders, former employees and economists, the problem is that although the G7 has common policy wording and perfect communication channels, the group of 20 (G20) has not developed to that extent.

The Central Bank of China does not send policy makers to the global economic conference, so it is impossible to communicate with senior officials of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other central banks on these occasions.

Former officials and currently serving officials said that although the Federal Reserve had formal contacts with China, no official hotline had been set up.

"Almost everything I heard from the central bank to international organizations is China's reluctance to participate," said Michael Spencer, an Asian economist at Deutsche Bank.

A survey conducted by Reuters shows that the Fed has studied China in the same public data as other economists, and Fed officials admit publicly and privately that they are not more sure about the impact of China's economic changes on the US than any other side.

There are few analysts specializing in China in the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, but the number is increasing.

For example, Reuters analysis shows that the Fed now releases at least one report on China every month, and only three or four reports were issued 10 years ago.

This does not include unpublished policy briefings and internal models.

Insiders say that these policy briefings and internal models provide references for the Fed's policy decisions. The decision made by the bank in September to maintain interest rates remains unchanged.

Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ye Lun, do have regular contacts with the Central Bank of China and other government officials.

For example, according to his schedule, ye Lun held a 30 minute conversation with vice governor of the Central Bank of China on the G20 meeting in Lima in October 8th.

The Fed did not comment on the content of the talks.