Guan Qingyou Tells You A Huge Investment Area.

China's development level combined with the national strategy, from the perspective of the five major development concepts of 13th Five-Year, there are many investment opportunities in the equity market.

Whether it is the regional disparity or the gap between urban and rural areas, the gap will take time to narrow, which means that there is potential energy difference, opportunity and potential. Our energy, resources and environmental constraints also mean that the investment space is very large.

We have arranged five opportunities for development, innovation development, coordinated development, green development, open development and shared development. I focus on the coordinated development of urban work, because this is an important increment.

According to reports from relevant media, the urban work conference may be held every two years at the central level, which means that the CPC Central Committee's thinking on urban rural work may be adjusted and changed.

Urban work means the management of new population resources centered on large and medium-sized cities, and even the introduction of some major initiatives. Recently, the media has also begun to report, which may involve administrative divisions, public services, urban infrastructure, general aviation, environmental protection and other important issues.

As for the supply side reform and asset allocation, the main points can be summarized as follows: one base, two contradictory points, three tough battles, and four asset pools.

First, a fundamental aspect.

There are two main levels. One level is the situation we are facing today. It should be the first time since twentieth Century. It is different from the great depression, post World War II reconstruction, oil crisis and stagflation.

This stage began in 2008 and ended in what year it did not know. Economists and even historians of economics need to summarize it in a few years.

At present, economic growth rate is declining, inflation rate is relatively low, asset price volatility is large and liquidity is very abundant. There is no systematic economic theory or theory guiding us to go out of this stage at present.

We know that every stage, such as the great depression, stagflation and great moderation, has corresponding theories. At present, we have not yet done so.

The second level is the decline or disappearance of the global labour dividend.

From 1900 to 2012, the demographic dividend in the United States, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, mainland China and Southeast Asia alternated. But after 2012, with the change of China's population structure, the global demographic dividend has subsided and weakened, and the new world economic growth momentum has not yet been connected.

From the perspective of demographic dividend, Southeast Asia and Africa will become an important engine of global economic growth in the future.

Many Chinese enterprises invest in factories in Southeast Asia to make use of their cheap labor force, which is a good choice.

But the economic volume of Southeast Asian countries can not be compared with that of China. Therefore, from the point of view of demographic change or demographic dividend, after 2012, the global economy actually entered a downward cycle, and the demographic dividend subsided is a long cycle, which is the most fundamental reason for the economic environment we are facing today.

This special environment has never been encountered in history. Therefore, whether it is the three phase superposition, the new normal or the supply side reform, is actually trying to get rid of the current situation.

The success or failure of each country's response needs to be observed. But now it can be judged that QE can not fundamentally solve the problem. If we can solve the problem by printing money, there will be no economic problems in the world.

Secondly, there are two contradictory points.

Is our supply situation insufficient or insufficient? If supply is insufficient, we are the world's largest producer of steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, electrolytic aluminum and coal.

In many areas, China is certainly not a shortage of supply, but rather an excess, and these surplus can not be digested by a small economic rebound.

So we are lack of demand?

Double eleven has created a new consumption trend, which is exceptionally hot. This year's sales volume reached about 90000000000 yuan. It is estimated that it will reach 100 billion yuan next year.

Hai Tao increased by one hundred times from 2008 to 2015, and demand was very strong.

So if the demand is not enough, it is not, this is very contradictory.

Once again, how to solve the two contradictory points based on one basic principle? We can neither rely on Keynes doctrine nor rely on Reagan economics, but rely on supply side reform.

The supply side reform also has a gradual process after the eighteen big scale. It should expand the aggregate demand and strengthen the supply side reform.

Our basic combing is to fight three tough battles, including short-term inventory, medium term deleveraging, and long-term technological innovation.

It is not easy to do well in these three tough battles. There are many levels involved in the supply side reform. It is impossible to make a single breakthrough.

It emphasizes not only the short-term management of the three carriages on the total demand, but also the reform of the four elements of land, labor, capital, technology and system in the medium and long term.

This is the two most important point that we should tackle today.

At the same time, we should also guard against the bottom line of systemic risk.

Finally, under the background of a fundamental, two conflicting points and three tough battles, we comb the assets that can be configured into four asset pools.

What we need to make clear is that this is a big era of wealth management. The trend of reconfiguration of residents' assets is not over. There is no change in the basic trend of reducing real estate allocation and increasing financial asset allocation. This is also a great era of wealth pfer, and a large amount of liquidity has shifted from such fields as excessive real estate, infrastructure, export and manufacturing to equity, stock, bond, foreign exchange and financial management.

The water from the traditional pool is flowing out, and the new pool will be reintegrated into the new water source.

We have at least four.

The first one is equity pools.

With the establishment of multi-level capital market and the smooth access to exit channels, it is probably a more profitable way to invest in the primary market and sell in the two tier market.

The second is the stock market.

The registration system is speeding up, and I have recently mentioned on several occasions that the introduction of registration system seems faster than expected.

China is likely to usher in market-based value investing. We must be aware that this is a value investment based on market-oriented distribution, which poses new challenges to our traditional analysis methods.

The third is the bond market.

From a global perspective, there is an aging trend. The decline of demographic dividend means that the weakening of aggregate demand is also a long-term trend, so the downtrend of risk free yield is also a long-term trend.

Although the bond market has experienced fluctuations, it is generally a very important area of future liquidity inflows, and we are still optimistic about the bond market in 2016.

The fourth is the foreign exchange market.

It is suggested that hedging risks should be arranged in multi currencies so as to prevent the sudden fluctuation of single currency exchange rate.

The strengthening of the US dollar is a trend. We should match the emerging markets with the US dollar assets.

China's development level combined with the national strategy, from the perspective of the five major development concepts of 13th Five-Year, there are many investment opportunities in the equity market.

Whether it is the regional disparity or the gap between urban and rural areas, the gap will take time to narrow, which means that there is potential energy difference, opportunity and potential. Our energy, resources and environmental constraints also mean that the investment space is very large.