The Middle Price Plus 100 Points On The Shore RMB Is Down?

Down this week

On Wednesday, the central bank lowered the central parity of RMB against the US dollar to 6.4140, the weakest level since August 2011.

In the spot market paction, traders also noted that the RMB dropped from the 6.40 pass last Friday, and this week, it has been going on a downward trend day by day, and the depreciation rate seems to be traceable every day.

Huang Yi, head of foreign exchange and precious metals trading at Guangdong Development Bank, said that during the week, during the weakening of the renminbi, there were a few Chinese banks in the day trading that continued to sell US dollar defensive exchange at some points.

It is worth noting that the defensive position on Monday at 6.4085, Tuesday on 6.4180, Wednesday around 6.4250, basically lower than the mid day price of 100 points.

The above signs of "on shore RMB" look a bit like that.

"The intention may be to control the pace of depreciation," Li Liuyang, chief financial market analyst at MITSUBISHI Tokyo daily bank, China, said in an interview.

At present, when the euro appreciates and the US dollar index falls, the central bank will "take the initiative to guide and digest the depreciation pressure before the end of the year." next week, the Fed will not be too passive after raising interest rates, "he said.

Huang Yi said, compared to

"Now, more depends on the prices of Chinese banks and the trend of CNH.

If the important price is to abandon the breakthrough, then everyone will decide this position to stand firm.

"

Li Liuyang also believes that this week's middle price and daytime trading mode is still a short-term rule observed, and how long it can last is not easy to say.

The official price limit for RMB is still 2% of the daily average price.

"Until next week, the Fed's interest rate hike will not exceed the minimum value of $6.45 in August," Li Liuyang predicted.

This means that the yuan will depreciate by nearly 4% this year.

Chen Shiyuan, chief economist of Bloomberg Asia and economist, wrote earlier that the reduction of the middle price is certainly a noticeable trend, but more likely, the Central Bank of China is using the period of the Federal Reserve meeting to test the market's reaction to the weakening of the renminbi.

At the end of November, when the yuan was included in the IMF reserve currency SDR, the RMB Offshore and offshore exchange rate went out of the depreciation market, and the spread of the price widened significantly, indicating that the strength of the market's bet on the depreciation of the renminbi was revival.

However, China's central bank has not intervened so far to reverse the weakening of the renminbi.

"The middle price reflects the attitude of the central bank. The Federal Reserve will basically raise its interest rate next week. The central bank will go ahead of the market and release the pressure of depreciation ahead of schedule," said Xia Le, an economist at Spain's external bank in Hongkong.

He believes that after the central bank's accession to the SDR and the goal of "clean floating", the intervention in the market will continue to weaken.