How Long Will The Canadian Dollar Continue To Fall?

Morgan Stanley and Macquarie and other banks expect the Canadian dollar to continue to fall.

According to Peng Bo, Morgan Stanley said, from the Bank of Canada to

Almost no one knows how much Canadian dollar will fall before the oil price slump to revive the Canadian economy.

As the top ten most accurate Foreign Exchange Forecasting institutions, Morgan Stanley and Macquarie both expect the Canadian dollar to drop by about 9% in the three quarter of next year, and the dollar will rise to about 1.45 against the Canadian dollar, which will be the weakest level since 2003.

According to Bloomberg survey, the exchange rate of US dollar to Canadian dollar will be 1.35 in 2016.

Since October 2013, the exchange rate of US dollar to Canadian dollar has risen by nearly 30%.

It is one of the countries that mainly export crude oil.

Since 2014, the price of crude oil has fallen by about 40%, which has caused considerable impact on the Canadian economy.

Canada's GDP fell 0.6% in the first quarter.

The biggest contraction since the financial crisis. GDP continued to shrink in the two quarter, although the overall economic growth in the three quarter was the biggest decline in September since September.

However, Canada

They are more optimistic about their economic prospects.

According to Reuters, Lynn Patterson11, the vice-president of the Canadian Central Bank, said at the end of the month that the economy was rebounding under the promotion of non energy exports and investment after the moderate contraction in the first half of the year. The economic growth rate in 2017 is expected to rise to 2.5%.

The Central Bank of Canada said at a meeting on Wednesday's monetary policy that the economy continues to undergo complex and lengthy adjustment due to the decline in terms of trade.

But the adjustment process has been supported by factors such as the low exchange rate of the Canadian dollar, the recovery of the US economy and the interest rate cut before.

Although business investment continues to be suppressed by reduced expenditure in the resource sector, sensitive and non resource sensitive exports are rising.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada reiterated its confidence that Morgan Stanley and Macquarie both said the central bank's policymakers would be disappointed.

According to Peng Bo Morgan, Evan Brown, joint director of US foreign exchange strategy, the rest of the market may not realize how much competition Canada has lost in manufacturing.