The Stock Market Crash Is Highly Related To Overvaluation.

A new bull market is needed to boost the economy and boost confidence.

Just as the US stock market first recovered in the 2008 financial crisis, then the economy continued to grow stronger.

China's economy is likely to create a huge bull market in the process of deepening reform and comprehensive pformation towards the world's largest economy, and at the juncture of many entities in the industry to boost its strength, it needs a wave of bull market to promote pformation, stimulate innovation vitality and manage the market, and the bull market effect will also feed the real economy, which is a positive cycle.

Everyone likes it because the bull market can make big money, which is a small problem in the problem. The key is that the bull market can greatly increase the affordability of new shares, which can increase the supply of new shares, and lay an index foundation for registration reform. It can greatly solve the problem of over high indirect financing, increase the support for innovative economy, and effectively reduce excessive leverage.

But the biggest problem is that there are too many meanings in the bull market. There is a big bull in the bull market and a buffalo in the buffalo. There is a mad cow in the big buffalo. If you encounter a super crazy big buffalo that loses control and loses control, the market will be full of bubbles, then it will suffer a lot if it fails.

If the bubble burst threatens the security of the entire financial market, it will be even more troublesome. The first half of this year is a witness of history. Not only will the small and medium-sized investors suffer heavy losses, but also the public fund will be defeated.

Before the financial crisis, the state had to use 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan of funds to intervene directly in the market, and had to suspend the IPO and introduce some temporary measures to stabilize the stock index. This lesson is very profound.

The collapse of the end of June, although the market interpretation of different reasons, the Securities Daily Dong Shaopeng is pointing the spearhead against the four malicious short selling behavior, the author does not deny that the market exists in the market manipulation of malicious acts of profit making, but the saying goes well, flies do not bite the seamless eggs, if the Chinese stock market does not appear systemic risk, short selling force is difficult to succeed, even if it is only in some stocks some index gain local profits, it is impossible to cause the entire stock market systemic risk, leading to the big index of unlimited volume limit.

According to the author's point of view, there is a serious bubble in the whole market, which gives an opportunity for short sellers. It is precisely because everyone knows that the valuation is too high, so no one dares to enter the market for fear of being stuck in the top of history.

The 6124 point is that there is no short selling force. However, as the valuation is at a historical high level, the stock market still has a sharp drop. It is only the extension of the fall time and the decline slope is more gentle. This is related to the existence of the leverage fund.

Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman of the Committee of the National People's Congress Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman Li Jiange of Central Huijin Investment Co and vice chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, Wang Zhongmin, as the head of the project group, and more than twenty industry experts participated in the research and writing of the stock market, and wrote the eighteen thousand words Research Report.

It's a trading system.

Stock price manipulation.

The manipulation of stock prices directly led to a huge bubble in the market.

Therefore, we should not start from the cause of the stock market itself, and unilaterally emphasize that the stock market's malicious behavior of short selling is not fair or beneficial to the healthy development of China's stock market in the future.

Why do I bother to say that the stock market crash at the end of June is due to illustrate the fact that the main reason for the collapse is that the valuation is too high and the bubble burst, and the stock market is still bubbling, and the valuation is still high. Especially the small and medium sized bubbles are still very serious. This is worth vigilant. In a stock market full of bubbles, it is still a great deal to talk about whether to start a big bull market. Is it right? Is it responsible?

The bull market effect has to feed the real economy and form a positive effect. There is a premise that the stock market valuation is reasonable, and there should not be too many bubbles. The rise must be supported by the macro-economy, and the rise will match the growth of the listed companies. That is to say, the price earnings ratio will remain stable in a reasonable range.

Just like the three major stock indexes in the US, the P / E ratio remains the same.

If the stock market rise is just a huge bubble, once the bubble burst, it can not only feed the real economy, but it may destroy the real economy.

The stock market bubble burst in Taiwan, and the bubble burst in Japan's stock market has caused great harm to the real economy.

The stock market promotes the economy or the economy pushes the stock market. I think the first is that the economic interest drives the development of the stock market, and the development of the stock market drives the economic development again. This is the virtuous circle. To create a bull market is not likely to achieve good social and economic benefits, because the artificial bull market is easy to appear irrational rise and become a bubble. Once the bubble burst, not only will the bull market lose, but the economy may also be dragged down.

If there is a huge bubble in the stock market, the consequences will be even more serious.

The bull market is everyone's love, but what we need is a bull market without bubbles, not a huge bubble.

Maybe some people disagree, but I think Wu Xiaoling, deputy director of the finance and Economic Commission of the people's Congress, is still worth our attention and thinking. Wu Xiaoling said, "the media has not played its due role in the stock market crash. The current stock market volatility, media opinion boosted bull market thinking, directly guided the stock market's rising expectations, and promoted the" mad cow ".

Wu Xiaoling said that due to the lack of effective public opinion analysis monitoring and feedback mechanism, it failed to correctly guide public opinion, making bull market thinking further magnified.

Back to the Shanghai Composite Index.

Similar to the US road index, there is room for room for improvement. That is, the undervalued stock market of China's stock market regenerates vitality. The author also values the value discovery opportunities of bancassurance.

The author thinks that although the valuation of bank shares is very bottom, it has huge uncertainty. It is not very realistic to say that the valuation has increased a lot.

At present, the profit growth of the four main banks is basically 1% up and down, especially the 2% critical point of NABC's bad loan breakthrough, which also makes the market full of worries. The profit growth of the main business of the city commercial bank has also declined sharply, basically a single digit.

As for coal, steel and other cyclical industries, the operating environment still can not see the dawn of improvement. The profit of steel tons is -200 yuan, and the more the loss is, the more the loss is. The basis for the rise of stock prices is also non-ferrous, and so is property. The three or four tier cities are very serious in storage, and the road to inventory is still difficult.

The downturn in real estate has led to a decline in the boom in building materials and other industries.

The key is whether bancassurance will cause a sharp fall in the stock market, which will offset the rise in the index.

Therefore, the author believes that China's stock market has no basis for a big bull market, nor can it launch a super big bull market. If we ignore the bubble's present situation and rely on the central bank to blindly release the water and rely on some media for advocating and rely on some policies to push the bull market, a round of man-made bull market will not be a blessing in the Chinese market, nor a blessing for Chinese finance, nor a blessing for investors.