Dong Shaopeng Talks About The Skyrocketing And Slump Of Retail Investors

The group on the stage has members of state-owned enterprises, members of the legal profession, members of investment banks, and members of banks. The theme of our forum is compliance management and reform of state-owned enterprises, and risk prevention is actually compliance, reform and risk. Risk prevention is not for precaution. Compliance management is not for compliance but compliance. It is actively considering from the needs of business management. Law is the bottom line, not everything is regulated by laws and regulations. Just now, the host also said that the SASAC and other ministries and commissions have some regulations on the enterprises, but they are not as hard as the SFC. But the problems in the securities market are quite prominent, which shows that the development of the compliance and the risk are a dialectical relationship.

It is very important for the stock market to run steadily and moderately active. If the two level market is not active, the stock will cease to be issued. This has happened. From September 2012 to 2013, the stock market will not be issued to the stock market. What a great harm to the economic situation! The market is going up and the two tier market is good. Enterprises can get financing through the primary market, and the listed companies can get refinancing. Of course, if the price is wrong, there will be problems; the core of the reform now is the price formation mechanism. On the basis of the establishment of the mechanism, if the issuing behavior violates the bottom line, how to deal with it should be dealt with.

Therefore, we must talk about the financial economy and the industrial economy, and do not talk about the real economy and the virtual economy. No matter the surname is "surreal" or "surreal", it will be good if it is conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure, the steady growth of economy and the well-being of the people. Regardless of the surname of "surname", it will be bad as long as it creates excess capacity, endangering the environment and detrimental to the well-being of the people. Financial economy and industrial economy should promote each other. China needs not only industrialists but also capitalists and financiers. Risk and opportunity exist at the same time. Risk and compliance management is for better development, not for binding itself.

What links do risks exist? First, market players. Including enterprises, financial enterprises, securities companies themselves are enterprises, banks are also enterprises. The enterprise's compliance risks and operational risks are on the one hand. The two is the intermediary organization, and its operation management is also facing risks. The three is whether investors are high or low in investment, and when to escape from the roof and when to copy the bottom, they are also at risk. The four is the regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other regulatory bodies, as well as the associations, the basic supervision Association, the Listed Companies Association and the two exchanges. The new three boards are facing risks and compliance problems.

In June and July, a serious stock market crash occurred in China's stock market. There are many friends of state-owned enterprises here. According to my daily contact, you have a variety of knowledge about the capital market, and even senior leaders have different understanding of the stock market. Here, I would like to make an exchange with you.

After nearly 25 years of development, China's stock market has made rapid progress in terms of financing scale and market capitalization. Now the market value of China's stock market is the second largest in the world, but the quality is not so high. It has been said that too many retail investors have caused the stock market to catch up and fall, soaring and plummeting. This has been a long time ago, and I hold a negative attitude. It is not the retail investors who maintain the market value center, but the core and mainstream investment banks. Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan and so on maintain their blue chip value center.

The stock market crash in China is the result of the repeated stock market crash. China's stock market crash did not happen only this time. It also happened after Hongkong's return in 1997, and in June 2001. The share reform market rose from 2005 to October 16th of 2007, and then there was a stock market crash, which was very serious this time. By 2011 and 2012, the stock index was around 2000, and many people admired that it fell to a very reasonable level. However, this is precisely the mechanism to stabilize the market, and the investment banks' ability to maintain the value center is not enough. I even think this is a political lesson.

The fundamental reason for the sharp rise and fall of China's stock market is that investment banks do not have the capability of independent pricing. How much is the price of a listed company to the stock market, especially outside the world? When a company goes public in the US, whether it is ten yuan or 50 Fen, it is considered reasonable. Now, the stock market has been resurgence, of course, this is a topic. We do not have independent pricing power. Who has the pricing power in the hands of the international investment bank headed by the United States?

We find it very strange that the RMB has not been completely released, and QFII has not fully released the quota. Shanghai and Hong Kong have not fully liberalized the quota. How can it affect us?

The first way for the United States to influence China's economy is to guide our economy through the strong guidance of public opinion, including the macro economy, stock market and banks, the bad debts of many banks, the unsolvable local debt, the unsustainable investment and so on. In short, there is no way out. This morning, I shared with Wu Qing researcher the views on excess capacity, steel, coal, cement and other excess capacity, how to do it? Part of the ease, part of the archive, part of the transfer, part of digestion. Even if there are such problems, we must have serious solutions if we take serious measures. Besides, "one belt and one road" can digest a considerable part of excess capacity. If the past production capacity is not sensitive to macro signal and the mechanism of enterprises is not in place, then we should not overlook the important reason why our economy can not go out at all.

Some of the leading forces in the United States have been singing us for a long time, shorting us through stock market and financial system. Recently, I have an overall description of the four short selling forces. The first force is the United States. What is the US short selling tool for China? At present, we have investigated and dealt with some foreign companies in the territory. In the United States, all the new FTSE 25 index futures are traded in Singapore, and all the new FTSE 50 index futures are traded in Singapore. These two things are long short of China.

The second force is a large investment bank in China. The main investment banks in the country follow the short message of the US. Wall Street fell, but it did not rise. In general, our domestic investment banks are looking at their faces, including whether the Fed raises interest rates or not. I said a little bit thick, you fed do not play the role of garlic, add it, add it, do not add it, do not make the world around your signal back and forth hype. Now, the inflation rate in the United States has not reached that level, raising interest rates or not, each accounting for 50% probability; even if interest rates were raised in December, the sustainability was also low. Our core investment banks follow the operation of the United States, do not safeguard the fundamental interests of the state, do not safeguard the value center of the country, or even earn money for national stability funds.

The third force is small and medium-sized institutions in China. They are too lazy to study the macroeconomic policy, industrial structure and industry trend of the country. Before and after maintaining stability, I heard these voices over and over again, "hit it again," and "rush out for shipment on Tuesday at half past two p.m.".

The fourth force is in academia and government, such as research institutes, research centers, academia of science, some scholars in universities, and some officials. Some of them unconsciously believe in the values led by the United States, and part of them are closely cooperating with the United States to help the United States sing empty and short China.

The four forces converge and lead to us. equity market Very unstable. Retail investors can not decide the value center of the stock market. Our blue chips, such as banking stocks, have only 4 times earnings and even below net assets in 2012 and 2013, but the core institutions do not buy them and continue to sing.

Now, the Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the stock market issue, and general secretary Xi Jinping has spoken publicly about the stock market for the 6 time. Of course, serious rectification has also been carried out.

In August 25th, I wrote "destroying confidence in China's stock market will jeopardize the overall reform" first issued online at zero point, then published in the newspaper. In the evening, the public security organs arrested the top executives of CITIC Securities, the reporters of Finance and economics magazines, and the two level cadres of the Securities Regulatory Commission.

In September 16th, assistant president Zhang Yujun was arrested, and Yao Gang was arrested in November 13th. Yao Gang and Zhang Yujun are very familiar with me. I am sad to see their faces dim. Of course, which legal clause did they touch on to the judiciary for publication? During the period of maintaining stability in June and July, it was very difficult, and some secrets were leaked out, which led to a more embarrassing situation.

General Secretary Xi has publicly stated in September 22nd that "after the comprehensive adoption of various stabilizing measures, the market has entered the stage of self repair and self-regulation". "Developing capital market is the direction of China's reform and will not change because of the stock market volatility". It's very clear. The top leaders of the past said publicly that the stock market was not large. General Secretary Xi talked about the stock market many times recently, just to illustrate the importance of the stock market. As the backbone of the country, the listed companies should play a great role in the historical process of economic transformation and upgrading in the tide of mixed ownership reform in the bottom line of laws and regulations.

By 2014, sales of listed companies accounted for 34.6% of GDP. Listed company The supporting role of the national economy is obvious. Others, such as Li Jiange, Xu Xiaonian and Chen Zhiwu, say that China's stock market has plunged and it is okay, but it is a matter of 80 million investors. This is not true. In fact, there are nearly 1 hundred million of the stock holders, and the family population they affect is 3 hundred million according to a family of three. According to scientific estimates, the population is about 5 hundred million. The influence is very extensive.

The stock market is not only Investor The investment place is a platform for national asset pricing, an important platform for mixed ownership reform, M & A activities, and an important platform for industrial upgrading. During the "13th Five-Year" period, 190 reform measures should be implemented one after another. At the same time, the "one belt and one road" plan is interrelated with the "13th Five-Year plan". It is necessary to carry out the "one belt and one road" plan not only during the "13th Five-Year" period, but also to carry out "one belt and one road" in 14th Five-Year and 15th Five-Year. This is because, in the past, the development of developing countries represented by China or emerging countries, and the consumption of developed regions represented by the United States and Europe, there is no such a cycle. If we want to get the international development space, we must take a whole road.

China's theoretical and industrial circles often confuse or puzzle out a truth, that is, the relationship between virtual economy and real economy. When the stock market went up, it said that the stock market had sucked up the funds for the development of the real economy. No matter being a member of the newspaper industry or as a member of the think tank, I have repeatedly said that we should not talk about the virtual economy and the real economy, but also talk about the financial economy and the industrial economy, otherwise we will be confused. Premier Li Keqiang once said in April, and once again in October 16th, he said that finance and the real economy are closely linked and mutually beneficial.